Following President Biden’s decidedly underwhelming debate performance and subsequent sluggish poll numbers, the already uphill battle for Democrats to maintain their majority in the Senate may hinge on a resurgence of voters willing to choose candidates from different parties for various offices.
Democrats face a particularly tough Senate map, with multiple incumbents up for reelection in battleground states, and they hold a surprisingly slim 51-49 majority over Republicans, who boast a much more favorable map in this election.
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Senate Democrats seeking reelection may be hoping that split votes become more frequent as President Biden’s approval rating declines. (Getty Images)
“If a candidate feels that the presidential candidate is going to lose in their state, then obviously they have to think about ways to put distance between themselves and the presidential candidate,” said Kyle Kondik, editor of the Sabatos Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
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From left: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), former President Trump, and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). (Getty Images)
Split-party voting for president and the Senate was most popular in the 1970s and 1980s and often favored Democrats, who frequently won Senate seats in states won by Republican presidents, according to data compiled by the center, but the practice has declined in recent decades.
This downward trend could make things difficult for Democrats, who are in a weaker position in the current environment, Kondik said.
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From left: Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), and Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). (Getty Images)
One expert said the campaign for tightly contested Senate Democrats will likely look different than the presidential campaign or those in safer districts. “As long as Senate Democrats continue to lead Biden in states, candidates will likely refrain from fully aligning themselves with Biden to avoid losing ground,” said Madison Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin.
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Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) speaks at the Inaugural Dinner in Philadelphia on November 1, 2019. (Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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“But the calculations will be different in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Republican-leaning states like Montana,” he explained. “Jon Tester, a political misfit in the state, has always had to paint an identity somewhat independent of the national Democratic Party, and 2024 will be no different. In contrast, Bob Casey’s fate hinges on Biden doing well in Pennsylvania, so he will likely remain a staunch supporter.”
“No Democrat, whether in a winnable or close seat, wants to be the first to say the obvious about President Biden’s health,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye, pointing to the relative silence from at-risk Democrats following Biden’s poor performance in last month’s debate with former President Trump.
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