New polling has some Democrat operatives worried momentum is leaving the party as the November midterm elections draw ever closer, Politico reported Monday.
Democrats had benefited from a jump in support following the Supreme Court’s overruling of Roe v. Wade in June, specifically among women; however, 21 days from the midterms, the party is trailing in two critical surveys.
A poll conducted by YouGov for CBS News shows Republicans leading Democrats by two percentage points, 47% to 45%. That translates to an estimated Republican majority of six seats, one more than predicted in September.
Meanwhile, The New York Times poll conducted by Siena College shows Republicans up four points, 49% to 45%. That is a substantial change of pace from last month when the same poll had Democrats up two, 46% to 44%.
“I’m wishing the election were in August,” Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public affairs at Third Way, told Politico. “I think we peaked a little early.”
Progressive advertising and marketing expert Mark Longabaugh, a former member of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 Democrat presidential campaign, vocalized similar concerns.
“Look, man, I’ve been at this for 30 years, and it is always the period in late September and early October when an election starts to tilt and move,” Longabaugh stated. “So, we’re at that moment, and I don’t think you can look at these numbers across the country and say anything, but it looks like it’s moving in [the] Republicans’ direction.”
Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted generic ballot polling average still shows Democrats leading by 0.8 points – but that is down from a nearly 2-point lead in September. RealClear Politics, on the other hand, shows the GOP up 2.2 percentage points.
“It’s feeling like a midterm where we’re in charge [of the White House], and we know what that means,” liberal pollster Molly Murphy said, referring to the trend of poor performances from the governing party in midterm elections.
Still, the Impact Research president said she believes Democrats “will do better than I thought we might have done six months ago.”
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