Democrats are struggling to reverse the rightward shift among Latino voters seen in November when President Trump once certainly earned a big profit from the blue voting block.
The majority of Latino voters voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in November, but stocks in support of Trump rose about eight points between 2020 and 2024. Data from AP vote. The Latinx man moved to Trump in double digits despite the president being criticised along the anti-immigrant rhetoric and controversial campaign trails for deportation plans.
“The Biden campaign, and then the Kamala Harris campaign, had a lot of work involved in all groups, but many Latinx men were so disillusioned with Joe Biden, and the last four were in the same position. I was surprised to see what happened. Democrat political strategist Maria Cardona said:
When he won his first term in the oval office in 2016, Trump brought only 28% of Latino voters, Pu Research Center. In 2020, his support rose to around 35% in the AP vote. This fall, about 43% support helped him secure him for the second term.
The 2024 figures are part of a broader shift to the right across almost every state and demographic group, with Democrats enjoying Republican former President Mitt Romney, a staggering 71% to 27% It emphasizes that it has steadily concessions on the block between 71% and 27%. According to 2012 Pew Hispanic Centre.
It was Trump's message about the economy that convinced many voters, experts said.
“Trump did a great job in messaging,” Cardona said. “Many of them were misinformation, lies, conspiracy theories, and frankly many people believed. But at the end of the day they said Trump had to them at the beginning of Trump. I believed that I was going to give them the economy. [first] semester. “
Meanwhile, the impact of Trump's attitude towards immigration on Latino voters may have been overestimated.
“If there's a president or office candidate who had an immigration policy that was clearly trying to hurt their community, it doesn't matter how much they liked their economic policy. Latinos at Menlo College, California. Melissa Michelson, a professor of politics focused on politics, said:
“I think we all updated our understanding of how Latino voters make vote choice decisions.”
Trump Camp works along the campaign trail to link immigrants to economic distress, suggesting that immigrants are stealing what Trump calls “Black Jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” advocate for the immigration It is driving the housing shortage in the US.
That could have led some Latino voters to the idea that “If there aren't that many immigrants, things will get a little better.” , Prosperity and Inclusion Initiative at Brookings Institution.
“If Latino voters are saying elections after the election, “focus on the economy” … and I don't think Democrats actually had a message specifically directed towards Latinos. However, I think that was the background to the fact that immigration became popular a while ago. ” Sanchez said.
Many Latinos do not equate Trump's target with the immigrant community with claims that he “poisons our country's blood,” experts said.
“The idea is: If we can reduce immigration, then perhaps Americans will see Latinos who are already here, as they are unlikely to be suspected of being here without documentation,” Michael said. Son said.
Maritz Miranda Schenz, a strategist and former executive director of the Maricopa County Democrats in a fighting ground in Arizona, issued a warning about the number of Democrats slips with Latino voters.
“I don't think they're worried enough,” Saenz said. “The Democrats aren't scared yet, but it should be at the top of all the conversation.”
In Arizona, it is in it Top 5 In states with the highest percentage of Hispanic and Latino, Democrats “waited for what they called the sleeping giant, Latino voting block, and they were waiting to wake up and vote for a majority,” Saenz said. I said that. “And during that time they ignored that voting block.”
Trump's support among Latino women has slashed this cycle slightly, from 32% in 2020 to 39% in 2024. However, the change among Latino men has risen by 10 percentage points over the past four years, supporting 48% in November.
But as the Trump administration continues to target federal workforce, including the Department of Education, Rep. Adriano Espirat (DN.Y.) said Democrats have an opportunity to regain support for declining Latinx women. .
“We know that a big fight will be education,” said Espaillat, chairman of the Hispanic Caucus in Congress. “If he ruins Mama, he'll face a lot of trouble because Mama won't take it. They'll go out and fight for the kids. You'll do that Seeing that happen, when he reaches out to cut programs like Title I, this is Title II for schools with a considerable number of children under the poverty level, English learners, Or Title III, kids that are more training for the teacher, mom is upset. I think mom will put him in his place.”
Also, “overreach” on border security from Trump could create a democratic opening, co-founder of the Lincoln Project and author of “Latin Century: How America's Largest Minorities Change Democracy.” Mike Madrid said.
The new administration has launched the speed of immigration lawsuits in Trump's first month, including the U.S. Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) attack. I also drew this week's White House Backlash for posts A video that looks like you're laughing at the decoy.
“There's a great risk for Latinos to return to a more traditional voting pattern that supports Democrats when Republicans take their hands like that,” Madrid said.
While concerns among Latino voters go beyond immigration, Cardona argued that he has not denied that the president's policies are currently affecting them.
“There are many Latinos… buyers' regrets,” Cardona said. “When Democrats were trying to make a point against Latinos who were leaning towards Trump during the election, we raised a massive deportation. They didn't believe he would do that. I told them. Some people were mixed in their families, but they didn't believe it.”
And given the importance of the economy towards the bloc, frustration over prices under Trump could be another pathway to bring Latino voters back to blue.
Just as families “feel in a pinch” of federal layoffs, tariffs and other economic complications in the new administration, “we'll hope that Latinos will return to Democrats in two years,” Sanchez said. .
Cardona said Democrats will have time to rebuild the Latinx Union and regain control of either chamber in the middle of 2026.
“When they get low, we need to go to the jugular vein,” Cardona said.
Democrats need to take on massive federal layoffs. Many of them affect Latinos, affecting the massive deportation and the impact of Trump's policies on the economy.
“Now there are many reasons and ways in which this guy, Donald Trump, is clearly focused on the fact that he doesn't care about you and your family,” Cardona said. “We really have to make that bubble and tell people the truth about nakedness. Economists say Donald Trump's plans slow growth, explode inflation, which sacrifices more families. He says he'll do it.”
“It's a simple message, especially for those who gave Donald Trump the confidence that they could give them a better economy,” Cardona added. “I think this will completely destroy that bubble.”
