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Difficult challenges a vulnerable Ukraine needs to confront as issues arise for Zelensky’s government

Difficult challenges a vulnerable Ukraine needs to confront as issues arise for Zelensky's government

Gennady Dolzhenko feels he might be the only volunteer among nearly a thousand recruits at the training camp.

Most of the others are conscripts, some older or in poor health, taken from the streets by authorities to address the manpower shortages at the front lines in Ukraine.

The morale among fellow soldiers has plummeted further, especially following last week’s corruption scandal involving President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“Some are nearing 60, and it’s tragic that they should even be mobilized,” Dolzhenko remarked. “And now we have a huge scandal with officials stealing millions at a time when many people are really struggling. Do you think that inspires anyone to defend a regime that seems a lot like Putin’s? ”

Dolzhenko, who is 54, isn’t naïve—he’s acquainted with the grim realities of war.

At the front, the Pirogov First Volunteer Mobile Hospital, formed by former democratic activists, has treated over 50,000 casualties. Each day, he witnesses the stark battles against Putin’s forces.

Currently, Zelensky faces multiple challenges both domestically and internationally.

There’s rising anger around claims that officials embezzled millions from a state-run nuclear energy company, compounded by substantial losses on the battlefield, and a controversial peace plan proposed by Donald Trump.

terrible timing

Dolzhenko’s comparisons between Zelensky and Putin may be more rhetorical, but it’s hard to deny even the Kremlin would cringe at the corruption allegations centered around Energoatom, the state nuclear power company.

Investigators are looking into seven officials, including close Zelensky allies, believed to have diverted up to $100 million from contracts, with recorded conversations as evidence.

One individual, Timur Mindić, a past associate of Zelensky, reportedly fled after receiving a warning about an arrest warrant.

This situation couldn’t be worse in a country that tightly controls borders to stop draft dodgers.

Interestingly, there have been no updates about a purported gold toilet found in Mindić’s residence or any defendants complaining about back pain from carrying cash.

The timing and the nature of this scandal are particularly unfortunate.

With Russia continually assaulting Ukraine’s power grid, around 500,000 people currently lack electricity, many in Kyiv dealing with up to ten hours of blackouts each day.

This winter might turn out to be one of the harshest yet for Ukrainians, who now hold Energoatom accountable, alleging that the corruption hindered efforts to fortify substations against aerial strikes.

Zelensky warned that the key city of Pokrovsk in Donbass could fall at any moment, all while he endures his most challenging week since early 2022.

Additionally, reports emerged that Washington is pressuring him to agree to a unilateral peace arrangement brokered with Moscow without Kyiv’s involvement.

The 28-point plan, initially disclosed by a newspaper, demands Russia return major cities in Donetsk it has held onto for nearly a decade while keeping other occupied areas. In return, Ukraine would see its military size halved and be barred from acquiring long-range missiles aimed at Moscow, with all war crimes charges dismissed.

This proposal seems like a rehash of earlier peace initiatives, many rejected by Kyiv, seen by some as a pretext for Trump to disengage from negotiations.

Compounding Zelensky’s troubles, both Presidents Trump and Putin warned him that failing to endorse a peace deal by Thursday would result in significant losses.

Trump suggested that Zelensky “must like” the proposal, with U.S. officials threatening to cease military aid and intelligence sharing if their conditions aren’t met.

Zelensky is treating the situation seriously, acknowledging in a speech that this could be one of Ukraine’s most critical moments, stating the choice between “losing dignity and risking an important partnership” hangs in the balance.

However, convincing the Ukrainian populace to accept this deal will pose a unique challenge—one fraught with complexities given the deep sacrifices already made.

Dolzhenko represents a small fraction of those willing to entertain the plan. Acknowledging territorial losses, by Ukrainian standards, feels rather unconventional.

“It’s not ideal, but it’s the best option we’ve got,” he expressed.

His perspective isn’t solely about avoiding the front lines; he recently received a summons to serve and chose to comply. “Military service feels like a tax for the honest and less fortunate,” he noted.

Realistically, he admits, Ukraine had never planned on reclaiming lost territory through force.

Moreover, the separatist-controlled regions like Donetsk and Luhansk have descended into chaotic, gang-run areas, which will only create more issues for those left managing them.

Alina Florova, who once served as Ukraine’s defense minister and now is linked to a defense think tank, remains skeptical about the new peace initiative’s prospects.

“Zelensky might be saying yes simply because he can’t publicly oppose it,” she said. “Some discussion will occur, but nothing meaningful will come of it because the terms are completely unacceptable.”

“We are heading towards disaster.”

Ukraine’s negotiating power seems to be diminishing. Losing Pokrovsk, a crucial transport node, makes cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk increasingly vulnerable.

To defend Pokrovsk, Ukraine has also had to pull troops from the southern front near Zaporizhia, where the town of Hryapole is facing intense pressure.

A Russian breakthrough there could create severe risks for Zaporizhia itself.

Since Kherson fell in the early weeks of the war, Russia hasn’t claimed another major Ukrainian city, which Ukraine later regained in late 2022.

Simultaneously, Kyiv is dealing with a fighter shortage, as around 200,000 military-age men have evaded conscription since 2022, despite drone patrols at the border. As Dolzhenko highlights, this number is roughly equal to the size of the Ukrainian military at the war’s onset.

Front-line troops have complained that essential resources like thermal drones are being wasted on border security rather than being deployed in combat roles.

The prevalence of draft evasion also suggests that bribery may be involved, with significant corruption at the higher echelons providing excuses for those dodging the draft. Why risk their lives when others are profiting?

This widespread evasion is further driving a wedge between those who served and those who did not.

Ukraine’s population includes many war veterans with nationalist sentiments. Even if Zelensky were to agree to Washington’s peace terms, dissent might arise, and ongoing missteps could provoke calls for intervention.

Among those voicing concern is prominent right-wing YouTuber Serhii Sternenko, who recently warned Ukraine is “heading towards a disaster of strategic proportions that could erode our statehood.”

Without a significant shift in military and political leadership, he predicted, it’s only a matter of time before Russian forces breach Zaporizhia and beyond.

A drastic move is needed

Could a coup be on the horizon? Frolova thinks not, while Druzhenko foresees one but warns it could undermine Ukraine’s legitimacy and Western support.

Most observers agree that Zelensky may need to take drastic measures.

One potential action could involve sacrificing Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s powerful chief of staff, often seen as the “gray cardinal” of the presidency.

Yermak’s control over access to Zelensky raises concerns about his indirect responsibility for the Energoatom scandal.

“It would symbolically demonstrate that he takes this scandal seriously,” Dolzhenko remarked.

However, Zelensky views Yermak as an essential ally, a crucial reason he and the administration have persevered.

Recently, many Ukrainians pointed out that expropriations were commonplace in past governments, akin to Moscow’s tactics, albeit more concealed.

“Sure, corruption is an issue,” Florova acknowledged. “But at least it’s transparent.”

Despite having weathered numerous storms in the past, the current confluence of challenges feels unprecedented.

Reprinted with permission of The Telegraph.

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