Disney’s Latest Star Wars Entry Underwhelms at the Box Office
The newest installment in the Star Wars franchise, featuring The Mandalorian and Grogu, has made history—though not in the way Disney would hope. The film recorded the lowest opening weekend ever for a Star Wars feature, raking in just $81 million from Friday to Sunday. When factoring in inflation, this represents a troubling benchmark since 1999.
The projected sales for the extended, four-day Memorial Day weekend are estimated to reach around $97 million. Previously, the underwhelming performance was set by Solo: A Star Wars Story, which grossed $84 million over its first three days and $103 million across the holiday weekend.
In terms of adjusted figures, The Mandalorian and Grogu faces stiff competition. To put it in perspective, Solo would be equivalent to approximately $137 million over that same four-day timeframe, in today’s dollars. Solo eventually accumulated $214 million domestically and $392 million globally. It’s noteworthy that The Mandalorian and Grogu comes with a considerably lower production cost compared to Solo, which was around $275 million before marketing expenses.
As for the threshold for profitability, The Mandalorian and Grogu likely needs to hit between $450 million and $500 million to break even. However, it appears that Disney is somewhat relieved that this latest release didn’t completely tank—something that would have marked a significant misstep for the studio. The upcoming weekend will provide more clarity on its box office performance, especially with limited competition from releases like Masters of the Universe and Scary Movie.
It’s worth mentioning that many fans feel disillusioned with how the franchise has evolved. Unfortunately, the once-celebrated idea of a Star Wars “event movie” seems to have lost its luster. If we adjust for inflation, The Mandalorian and Grogu has recorded the weakest opening for a Star Wars film in nearly three decades.
- Phantom Menace (1999): $117 million
- Attack of the Clones (2002): $126 million
- Revenge of the Sith (2005): $155 million
- The Force Awakens (2015): $269 million
- The Last Jedi (2017): $225 million
- Rise of Skywalker (2019): $177 million
- Rogue One (2016): $164 million
- Solo (2018): $113 million – 3 days
- The Mandalorian and Grogu (2026): $81 million – 3 days
For a sense of comparison, even a seemingly unrelated film like The Devil Wears Prada 2 managed to pull in $77 million during its opening weekend. It’s baffling how Disney has gravitated towards alienating long-time fans. The Star Wars audience has reached a point where romantic comedies are managing to outdo major franchise films at the box office.
There’s still a chance that the situation could shift based on the following weekend’s earnings. The Mandalorian and Grogu may not necessarily be a disaster; it could still find a way to be a modest success. Nonetheless, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that what was once an iconic series now appears to be in decline, and it’s hard to think that many would have predicted this outcome.
