Thunderbolts* recently debuted with a disappointing $76 million over its opening three-day weekend.
Among the 34 titles in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Thunderbolts* ranks 28th. It fell short compared to other releases like Captain America: Brave New World ($89 million) and Guardians of the Galaxy ($94 million), not to mention the 17-year-old Iron Man ($102 million). Even Black Widow, released during the pandemic, opened at $80 million alongside its Disney+ availability.
Entertainment outlets may try to spin this as decent news, pointing to expectations of profitability for Thunderbolts*. Still, that perspective is somewhat misleading. According to Boxoffice Pro, expectations were closer to an $800 million opening.
Nevertheless, it’s important to note that this Marvel entry faced little competition during its May opening, marking the unofficial start of summer box office season.
On a global scale, the figures are even less encouraging. While Captain America: Brave New World saw a global opening of $192 million, Thunderbolts* managed only $162 million worldwide.
Entertainment media may highlight a few positive signs for Thunderbolts* heading into the next weekend: 1) No competing releases, 2) decent reviews, and 3) a strong Cinemascore.
Still, I would argue that solid reviews didn’t result in a stronger opening weekend, so why the expectation that they would boost the second weekend’s performance? While a good Cinemascore can indeed help, it hasn’t shown much impact between Friday and Sunday.
Also, the current 88% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes doesn’t reflect overwhelming enthusiasm. Many reviews seem to convey, “It’s not as bad as I thought.”
Personally, I found Thunderbolts* pretty lackluster.
And considering Captain America: Brave New World fell short with a global tally of $415 million, which didn’t cover its production and marketing costs, Disney surely needs Thunderbolts* to perform better. Especially with Fantastic 4: The First Step set to release in July.
Reported production and marketing expenses for Thunderbolts* are nearing $300 million, meaning to break even, it needs to gross around $500 million to $550 million globally (the studio typically keeps about half of box office earnings). Right now, that seems quite optimistic.
As we move into the fourth month of 2025, there have only been two significant box office successes: Minecraft Movies and Sinner. I haven’t seen Minecraft, but I can say that Sinner truly deserves its success—it’s one of those rare films that generates real word-of-mouth.
