Baseball, despite its heavy reliance on data analysis and detailed player assessments, often grapples with perplexing performance issues and physiological inconsistencies.
With the Dodgers in the thick of competition, let’s consider Edwin Diaz’s recent drop in fastball velocity early this season.
Diaz, who inked a major $69 million deal over the winter, is making his debut with the Dodgers and is facing an intriguing yet puzzling challenge. In his first six games, he averaged just 95.8 mph on his fastball.
This marks a significant decrease from last season’s average of 97.2 mph. Interestingly, he managed to secure a three-run save recently, despite some struggles with several sliders.
As manager Dave Roberts mentioned, the team is opting for a cautious approach regarding Diaz’s workload as he aims to get back to his top form.
“It’s a day-to-day thing,” Roberts remarked, noting that they avoided using Diaz in save situations following a lengthy 23-pitch outing the night before. “We’re just trying to play the long game with our players, like we’ve done many times before.”
Roberts added that Diaz’s participation in the upcoming game hinges on how he feels after his pregame pitching session.
These early fastball concerns aren’t new for Diaz.
After missing the entire 2023 season due to a knee injury, he has endured similar drops in fastball velocity in the two years since.
In a recent tweet, Diaz acknowledged that he’s faced this velocity issue early in the season since his knee injury, although his fastball usually returns to form as the year progresses.
Specifically, last April, he averaged 96.3 mph, but by August, it climbed back to around 98 mph. Similarly, in April 2024, he saw an average of 96.9 mph, which later improved to 98 mph by June.
“It’s been like that for the last few years,” the 32-year-old veteran shared. “It’s a little slow to start, and as the season progresses, my velocity returns to normal.”
While he couldn’t pinpoint an exact reason for this recurring velocity decline, Diaz remains optimistic about his eventual improvement.
Importantly, he clearly dismissed any injury concerns. He emphasized that he feels “fantastic,” pushing back against notions that he might be fatigued from his participation in the recent World Baseball Classic.
“I don’t think my arm is dead,” Diaz assured. “I’ve been working hard on it over the last few years, and like I said, I feel much better once the season kicks in.”
For now, the Dodgers are trying to maintain a positive outlook.
Roberts indicated that Diaz’s issues were not mechanical, downplaying any serious injury concerns. “It’s not an IL issue we’re talking about,” he clarified.
Instead, he described the Dodgers’ strategy as a precautionary measure during the season’s early days, expressing a desire to monitor Diaz carefully until he returns to form.
“I feel confident now,” Roberts stated. “Everything I’m sensing is that he feels good. I want to believe it completely, but I’m still keeping an eye on the radar gun. So, we’re being cautious while giving him the benefit of the doubt, but we’re still watching closely.”
