Last week, I tried to fade out the Dodgers’ James Paxton and the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin without much success. Combined, both pitchers allowed just one run in the first five innings with an over bet of 5.5.
However, the outcome of that game should not change our stance on Paxton.
Corbin was torched in Miami on Sunday, and I’m sure Paxton will have a similarly scary outing in Arizona on Monday night.
Let’s dig into why and decide on a candidate for the series opener between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks odds
| team | money line | run line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| dodgers | -130 | -1.5 (+110) | o10 (-115) |
| diamondbacks | +110 | +1.5 (-130) | u10 (-105) |
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions
The Dodgers are once again a strong defensive team and have more accurate information than most other organizations on how to position their fielders for each batter.
Still, Paxton’s good fortune in not getting hits in key situations is not sustainable, even when he hits the ball hard.
The Nationals had a .318 xBA against Paxton last Tuesday. He had only one strikeout and three walks.
Paxton has been hit hard 49.2% of the time this season, with a shockingly poor SO/W ratio of just 0.65.
His staff ratings are incredibly high (Staff+Rating is 74), and his command is also a concern. This season, six of the 20 batters he has faced with runners in scoring position have given up walks, but he continues to get out of trouble with timely lineouts.
Even when he’s actually in the strike zone, he’s not doing very well. Batters forced 53% of their pitches into the strike zone.
Also, with a hitter-friendly Chase Field, it should be even more difficult for Paxton to get outs with strong bats like he has this season.
The Dodgers have the best splits in the league against left-handed pitchers (124 wRC+, .793 OPS) and should continue that dominance.
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They have a solid target on Tommy Henry, who has a 5.55 ERA and should finish the year with a mid-4 point ERA.
Henry has an xERA of 5.19 and an xFIP of 3.82. He owns his Stuff+ rating of 82. He batted .405 in the field this season.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks picks
We should see both starting pitchers struggle in this game. First he’s 5 innings and he’s worth betting on at least 5.5 points.
