Saturday's wild card game against the Kansas City Chiefs was more than just an opportunity for the Miami Dolphins to advance to the next round of the NFL playoffs. It was also a chance to change the narrative surrounding the team all year long: a win over a bad team clinched a playoff ticket.
Nothing has changed since the 26-7 loss in frigid Kansas City. Rather, this game showed a national audience that the Dolphins are the league's ultimate papier-mâché tiger this season.
It was the latest humiliation in a rapid fall from glory for head coach Mike McDaniel's team.
On Christmas Eve, the Dolphins looked like one of the hottest teams in the league. Taking on the Dallas Cowboys in a battle of 10 vs. 4 teams, they celebrated a 22-20 victory and confirmed that not only are they legitimate contenders for the playoffs, but they are ready to compete against any team in football. I clearly showed that I was there. At least that's what it seemed like.
But what happened over the next two weeks raised serious doubts about Miami's ability to compete with the NFL's top teams. As it turns out, neither did Miami itself.
First, the Baltimore Ravens were defeated 56-19, ending the Dolphins' hopes of securing the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. A week later, with the AFC East title on the line, they lost again. A 21-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills dashed the club's hopes for its first division championship in 15 years. Not only that, but the Dolphins were forced to face none other than the reigning world champions in the first round of the playoffs.
Two weeks after their win over the Cowboys, the Dolphins faced another tough battle. And has such a thing ever happened?
Miami quickly fell behind 10-0, and while a 51-yard touchdown pass from Tua Tagovailoa to former Chief Tyreek Hill energized the club, it wasn't enough. Kansas City controlled the game on both sides of the ball and never seemed to risk a comeback. Meanwhile, the points continued to increase. 13-7. 16-7. 19-7. And when Isaiah Pacheco's run made it 27-7 in favor of the home team, the proverbial fat lady sang.
The Dolphins' high-powered offense finished the game with just 13 first downs and 264 yards, went just 1-of-12 on third downs, and turned the ball over four times (an interception). The result was 1 hit and 3 knockdowns).
“We fell way short of our goal,” McDaniel said after the game. “We have very high expectations for ourselves. One of the reasons many people don't put themselves out there and have high expectations is because they get emotional and lose heart when their expectations are violated. Because it feels like it's going to burst.”
Things didn't go in the Dolphins' favor Saturday. This game was one of his coldest in NFL history, with the temperature at kickoff being -4 degrees Fahrenheit and the wind chill being -27 degrees. This was a challenge for any team, especially one accustomed to playing in warm South Florida.
The Chiefs also played perhaps their most perfect game in recent weeks. Their defense applied relentless pressure, but their offense moved the ball more efficiently than they did in the second half of the regular season.
Add in the fact that the Chiefs were undermanned, especially on defense. In addition to missing edge defenders Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb and linebacker Jerome Baker on injured reserve, defensive backs Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard are also out with knee and foot injuries, respectively. Had to stop.
Yes, the Dolphins were limping toward the goal line. But even when they were at their best early in the season, they struggled against playoff-caliber teams.
Of the seven games against eventual playoff teams, Miami lost all but one (the aforementioned 22-20 win over Dallas in December). And they didn't just lose. The total point differential for these games was -110. As The Ringer's Sheil Kapadia pointed out, only Washington's manager had a worse point differential against his postseason opponents.
Dolphins vs. playoff teams: 1-6, -110 point differential. Only the manager had a worse point differential with a playoff team.
Miami's offense scored one TD on its final 16 offensive possessions of the season. A brutal performance when the stakes were highest.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) January 14, 2024
Meanwhile, the teams the Dolphins managed to win on their way to an 11-5 record had a combined winning percentage of just .358.
The Dolphins failed to play consistently competitive football against the best teams in the league. So it was no surprise that their season would end on a disappointing note, with a one-shot in the playoffs.
Such is the fate of the paper tiger.
