Latest vote Former President Donald Trump holds a three-point lead over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris nationally and a five-point lead in 10 key battleground states that will decide the next president, according to the Democracy Institute.
“Donald Trump appears to be gaining significant momentum in 10 key battleground states.” Reports The Daily Express US, which commissioned the poll, said: “Data from the Democracy Institute show that Republican presidential candidates [a] He led Kamala Harris by five percentage points, 50 percent to 45 percent.”
The poll was conducted on August 28th and 29th among 1,000 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The national poll was conducted among 1,200 voters during the same period.
The timing of the poll doesn't tell us much — only half were conducted after Kamala's disastrous CNN interview — and the results don't include the incredibly stupid and vile attack Kamala made on 13 Gold Star families over the weekend.
This poll is a bit of an outlier, but Much moreRasmussen has Trump leading by two points nationally. The latest Fox News poll has Trump leading by one point. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls has Kamala leading by 1.9 points, well below Hillary Clinton's lead on the same day in 2016 (+3.9) and Biden's lead on the same day in 2020 (+7).
The RealClearPolitics average of battleground state polls has Harris leading by just +0.2 percentage points. The Democracy Institute poll has Trump at +5 percentage points, a much larger lead. But it's interesting to note that the Democracy Institute poll includes three states that are not included in the RealClear average poll: Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. With these states included, one would expect Kamala to show an even larger lead than the RealClear average. After all, her approval rating is much higher in these three states than she is in the seven battleground states that RealClear tracks.
But with about 60 days left, Kamala is in New Hampshire today, and where the candidates go in this final sprint will tell us more about what their internal polling shows than anything else. Plus, Kamala's running mate, habitual liar Tim “Stolen Valor” Waltz, is campaigning in Minnesota today.
New Hampshire and Minnesota are supposed to be safe states for Harris.
Harris and Walz's visit to New Hampshire and Minnesota today follows Trump and running mate J.D. Vance's visit to Ohio and Florida.
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