Former President Donald Trump has a clear lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida’s hypothetical presidential contest, according to a survey by the University of North Florida Polling Institute.
The latest statewide poll, released on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, found Trump leading Harris by 7 percentage points in Florida’s hypothetical presidential election.
according to The results showed that 49 percent supported Trump, followed by 42 percent in favor of Harris, and Democratic Party leaders all but crowned her the nominee, even though no one backed her as their first choice.
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The poll predictably found that most Florida Democrats support Harris and most Republicans support Trump, but Trump leads by double digits among independents, with Trump leading by 12 percentage points among independents, garnering 50% of support to Harris’ 38%.
Notably, Trump also holds a three-point lead over Harris among women, with 47% approving him to Harris’ 44%.
The poll also showed that 74% of black Florida voters support Harris, compared with 16% who back Trump, but Trump has an edge among Hispanic voters, garnering 57% support to Harris’ 36%.
The survey was conducted among 774 Florida voters from July 24-27, 2024. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
📊 Florida GE: United Nations Office in Portugal
Donald Trump: 49%
Kamala Harris: 42%
Other: 4%
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Senate
Rick Scott (additional): 47%
D. Mucarsel-Powell: 43%
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#13 (2.8/3.0) | 774 LV | MoE: ±4.6%https://t.co/Z9N7j1xtkV pic.twitter.com/Lyp9XwBUUh— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) July 30, 2024
Despite its status as a traditional battleground state, Democrats are not treating Florida as such in the 2024 election cycle, given Trump’s overwhelming dominance in a state that has remained strongly Republican over the past few years and even experienced its own small Republican wave in the 2022 elections. Even traditionally Democratic Miami-Dade County tipped Republican toward both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio in that election year.
In June, the Biden campaign was thrown into disarray when campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said Florida wasn’t a battleground state for President Joe Biden, who was still campaigning at the time, but the campaign’s battleground states director quickly tried to save face, insisting Florida was “definitely on the ballot.”
The results are consistent with the reality that Republicans are approaching a 1 million voter registration advantage in Florida, a trend that began in November 2021.
What’s New: Florida voter registration by party as of June 18, 2024 (changes effective December 31, 2023)
🔴 5,238,195 REP (+96,347)
🔵 4,300,656 DEM (-61,491)
✅ @FloridaGOP By 937,539 points Frademus
🚨 Republican voter turnout increased by 157,838 in 170 daysRepublican average monthly lead increase in 2024: 30,194
— Florida’s Voice (@FLVoiceNews) June 18, 2024
