Former President Donald Trump has a double-digit lead among California Republicans in the 2024 Republican primary, according to a study by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government.
latest research find Trump took a double-digit lead in Golden State, defeating his closest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by 18 points. Mr. Trump has 44% of the vote, while Mr. DeSantis has a little more than a quarter, 26%.
Other declared candidates, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, are also being investigated in the investigation, but besides Trump and DeSantis: No one, including these two, has more than 4% support.
The poll shows a big shift in Trump support since February. Three months ago, DeSantis led California Republicans by eight points, with 37% supporting the governor of Florida and 29% supporting Trump.
In other words, Mr. DeSantis has experienced an 11-point decline over the past three months, while Mr. Trump has experienced a 15-point gain over the same period. In total, they reflect a 26-point shift in favor of the former president.
UC Berkeley Poll Trends for the 2024 California Republican Primary
February 14th to February 20th
• DeSantis — 37% (+8)
• Trump — 29%
• Trump — 44% (+18)
• DeSantis — 26%
— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) May 28, 2023
Research director Mark DiCamillo said Trump’s surge in support among California Republicans was driven by a long period of notoriety against the former president, including indictments and the sexual abuse trial of E. Jean Carroll. He pointed out that it was brought about while continuing.
“What’s been striking to me is that over the last three months, President Trump’s sexual abuse trial has attracted negative publicity and his image has actually improved,” he said.
“Even when the news isn’t always great, he can give his opinion on why things are the way they are, and Republican supporters pretty much believe him,” DiCamillo said. .
Additionally, Trump’s favorability rating among California Republicans jumped 5 percentage points from 69% to 74% in the past three months. DeSantis’ favorability rating is slightly better at 75%, but has dropped four points over the past three months, further suggesting that current trends favor the former president.
The survey was conducted May 17-22, 2023, among 1,472 California registered Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
DeSantis, who formally ran for president last week, is expected to launch an early state blitz in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday. visit After visiting other cities in Hawkeye, we’re also stopping in South Carolina and New Hampshire this week.
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