Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday's Michigan debate, according to an Insider Advantage poll.
In opinion polls, carried out The poll, conducted Wednesday and part of Thursday, found that 49% of 800 likely voters support Trump and 48% support Harris, with another 1% voting for another candidate and 2% undecided.
this mark That marks a three-point drop from Harris to Trump since an Insider Advantage/Trafalgar Group poll in August, which surveyed 800 people likely to vote in Michigan between Aug. 6-8, 2024, found Harris leading 49 percent to 47 percent.
Matt Towery, a pollster at Insider Advantage, noted in a press release that independents favor Trump over Harris by five points.
“The debate appears to have had little to no impact on the race in the state, particularly among independents,” Towley said, adding that a separate poll conducted by Insider Advantage in partnership with Trafalgar on the night of the debate found no change among undecided voters nationally.
A poll conducted in battleground states on the night of the debate with the Trafalgar Group found that respondents [sic] I expect Harris to win the debate 55% to 43%, support among undecideds remains the same, and overall support for the candidates is tied at 48% to 48%. The race remains very tightly contested, not just in Michigan, but probably in all battleground states.
Additionally, 20% of polled black voters support Trump, which Towery argues “may be an anomaly or it may reflect the higher numbers seen among African-Americans in recent national surveys.” of The New York Times investigation.”
of The New York TimesA Siena College poll released Sunday put Trump's approval rating among black people at 17 percent. Already registered A Marist/NPR/PBS News poll released Friday found him with 24 percent of black voters' support.
Towery added:
In any event, because the number of African-American voters in Michigan, while not negligible, is only half that of battleground states like Georgia, rolling this high number down to historical levels would not change the basic tie with very little margin of error. For a variety of reasons specific to Michigan in this election cycle, I believe the African-American numbers are pretty accurate, at least at this stage of the race.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
