Lessons from the 5G Experience: The Road Ahead for 6G
In the last ten years, the U.S. has encountered a hard truth. Although it pioneered the fundamental technology, it fell behind in the global race for 5G equipment. Today, much of the world’s 5G infrastructure relies on equipment from Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia. This Chinese advantage didn’t stem from superior technology. Rather, it resulted from the U.S. underestimating the tactical nature of the competition. It’s crucial that we don’t repeat this error with 6G.
During the recent APEC summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward a proposal for a new entity: the Global Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, which would be headquartered in Shanghai. This initiative appears to be a strategic move by China to steer the global AI landscape according to its political and economic aims. The U.S. must not allow this to happen.
AI is not merely a technological advancement; it stands as the bedrock for new computing infrastructures that parallel the importance of the Internet and electricity. Nations are establishing supercomputing facilities that transform raw data into digital intelligence—often referred to as “AI factories.” These facilities are swiftly becoming essential infrastructure, akin to power plants and communication networks. Countries equipped with these technology stacks will not only influence regulations and standards but will also capitalize on the upcoming industrial revolution.
When 5G standards were being developed, the U.S. viewed it as a technical issue rather than a geopolitical one. Policymakers seemed to rely on market forces to maintain American leadership. Conversely, Huawei offered ready-made networks at subsidized prices, backed significantly by the Chinese government.
Many European and developing countries turned to Huawei’s technology—not because it outperformed competitors, but because it was economically viable and readily integrated. The U.S. response, mostly consisting of delayed regulations and export restrictions, came only after Huawei had cemented its global position. By that stage, American concerns about security risks came across as bitter complaints. Now, Huawei is pivotal in shaping global communication standards, generating substantial licensing income, and securing influence over crucial technologies tied to national security. As the shift to 6G unfolds, Huawei is advocating for a pioneering AI-native approach, while others like Nokia and Ericsson are opting for a more gradual evolution.
In light of developing 6G infrastructure, U.S. companies appear to be learning from earlier missteps. For instance, the recent collaboration between NVIDIA and Nokia to merge AI computing with next-gen networks showcases how American tech leaders can leverage advanced chips and communication systems to better compete with China’s subsidized model. This partnership aims to illustrate how a U.S.-driven 6G ecosystem could grow internationally, ensuring that America and its allies take the lead in AI innovation.
Countries ranging from Saudi Arabia to Singapore are already investing in their own AI clouds using U.S. technology. However, China’s progress has not stalled. Huawei has recently introduced an AI-enhanced supercomputer, effectively merging its telecommunications strengths with AI capabilities. This scenario echoes the 5G era and should raise alarms for policymakers. If U.S. allies and emerging markets choose Chinese AI solutions due to their affordability and comprehensive packages, the U.S. may once again fall behind.
To secure victory in the AI landscape, the U.S. must adopt a defined and strategic approach. It’s crucial to ensure that its technology stack is implemented on a global scale. This is not solely about innovation but also about expanding strategic influence. To lead in AI, the U.S. has to broaden its technological presence beyond domestic confines and reinforce its AI ecosystem’s foundations.
Washington should actively support U.S. AI exports. Instead of imposing limitations, policymakers ought to motivate allies and partners to opt for U.S. AI infrastructure. This strategy would not only open up markets for American firms but also align global AI progress with democratic values and governance principles. Many nations are keen to craft AI systems that resonate with their unique priorities, utilizing their own data and languages. The U.S. should facilitate the creation of these sovereign AI clouds leveraging American technology.
Restricting American companies from accessing rapidly growing markets would be misguided. NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, has expressed concerns that overly broad export limitations are already hindering American firms’ market share in China, without successfully slowing down China’s advancements. If the U.S. stifles the global reach of its AI, it risks repeating historical errors in the 5G sector, where allies opted for Huawei not out of necessity but preference.
The U.S. must also maintain substantial domestic investments. Preserving leadership in AI relies on sustaining the most extensive and advanced AI factories worldwide. Continued innovation necessitates government backing and policy support, especially in vital sectors like energy infrastructure, environmental approvals, and supply chain resilience for high-tech components.
If America develops AI only to relinquish control of its application, history will judge harshly. Policymakers must take immediate action to establish the U.S. technology stack as the global standard. Otherwise, the world’s AI facilities and intelligence drivers could rely on Chinese technology, leaving the U.S. once again issuing warnings about security risks, while its competitors establish standards and claim rewards. This is a contest the U.S. can’t afford to lose again.
