There are many things we have been trained to avoid throughout our lives. Don’t say “I can’t” to something that seems difficult. Don’t open emails from unknown addresses, especially those claiming to be from a Nigerian prince who wants a very specific amount of money. Don’t watch “Planes vs. Volcanoes,” the 2014 thriller starring Dean Cain and Robin Givens.
It’s time to add three more to that list, at least for 2024 fantasy drafts.
Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas went mostly undrafted last year, but he batted .268 with 28 home runs, 86 RBIs, 101 RBIs, 20 stolen bases and a .783 OPS. There was no hint that anything like that would or could happen. He appeared in 275 Major League games from 2019 to 2022, posting a .237 batting average, 29 home runs, 94 RBIs, 108 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, and a .726 OPS. And it’s not like he spent seven seasons building up his .254 batting average and .755 OPS in the minors.
Thomas’ rise has taken him from being an afterthought to a top-25 outfielder with an average draft rank of 110.1, according to Fantasy Alarm. That seems insane (about as insane as wanting to happily sit through “Planes vs. Volcanoes” and expect to be entertained), especially since this is a player who more or less came out of nowhere in 2023. It’s because of it.
Joining the 20-20 club after being plucked from the bargain bin was great, especially for the fantasy manager who picked up Thomas. However, Roto Rage is skeptical about his ability to reproduce. His walk rate of 5.3 percent was the 12th-worst in the majors, and his whiff rate of 25.8 percent was the 24th-worst. His xBA (.255) was about 20 points below his actual average, and his xSLG (.436) was over 30 points below his slugging percentage of .468.
The bigger concern is Thomas’ second half. He got off to a strong start with a batting average of .302, 14 home runs, 49 RBIs, 60 RBIs, eight stolen bases, and an .845 OPS in the first half. He hit .223 with a .705 OPS after the All-Star break, despite hitting 14 more home runs and stealing 12 bases in the second half. His on-base percentage dropped from .347 to .274 in that span.
Was it the first sign of regression?
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Given that price, Roto Rage would prefer an outfielder like St. Louis’ Jordan Walker or Chicago’s Seiya Suzuki, or wait for a player like Tyler O’Neal, James Outman, or Riley Green later. That’s going to happen.
Thomas will be productive, but the underlying numbers indicate a regression from a player who doesn’t have a history of the type of productivity he showed in 2023.
Estury Ruiz (125.65 ADP)’s 67 stolen bases were the second-best mark in the majors in 2023. And he did it in 497 at-bats, nearly 240 fewer than league leader Ronald Acuña Jr. But he doesn’t hit for power. And his walk rate is non-existent. His OBP in ’23 was below average, and his xBA (.234) was 20 points below his actual average (.254). He’s a one-trick pony, batting last in the awful A’s lineup, but he’s so fast that he’s being drafted over more well-rounded players. hard pass.
Luis Robert (33.1) is coming off a great season (.264 batting average, 38 HR, 80 RBI, 90 batting average, 20 SB, .857 OPS). It was his first season with over 100 games played (until 2023, he never played more than 98 games in a season). The problem is not talent, he has plenty of talent. The problem is his high price tag, injury history and potential to bat in the middle of a low-scoring White Sox offense.
Roto Rage Jarrad Wilk ranks outfielders
Baseball broadcast next week!
1. Ronald Acuña Jr., Atl
2. Julio Rodriguez, Sea
3. Corbin Carroll, Ali
4. Mookie Betts, LAD
5. Juan Soto, New York
6. Kyle Tucker, Hou
7. Aaron Judge, New York
8. Yordan Alvarez, Hou
9. Adris Garcia, Tex
10. Fernando Tatis, SD
11. Michael Harris II, Atl
12. Randy Arozarena, TB
13. Kyle Schwarber, Phi
14. Colonel Nolan Jones
15. Cody Bellinger, ChC
16. Luis Robert, CWS
17. Mike Trout, LAA
18. Josh Lowe, TB
19. Jazz Chisholm, Mia
20. Bryan Reynolds, Pitt
21. Evan Carter, Tex.
22. Jordan Walker, StL
23. Cedric Mullins, Bar Island
24. Teoscar Hernandez, LAD
25. Nick Castellanos, Phi
26. Thin Spencer Stair
27. Christian Yelich, Mill
28. James Outman, LAD
29. Anthony Santander, Bar
30. Ian Happ, ChC
31. Esterie Lewis, Oak
32. Seiya Suzuki, ChC
33. Geroge Springer, Thor
34. Jack Swinski, Pitt
35. Tommy Edman, StL
36. TJ Friedl, Shin
37. Chas McCormick, Hou
38. Brandon Nimmo, New York
39. Jorge Soler, SF
40. Lane Thomas, Was
41. Riley Green, Detective
42. Taylor Ward, LAA
43. Jake Fraley, Shin
44. Mil Sal Frerik
45. Christopher Morrell, ChC
46. Tommy Pham, FA
47. Jalen Duran, Boss
48. Masataka Yoshia, BOS
49. Lourdes Gurriel, Ali
50. Starling Marte, New York
51. Tyler O’Neal, Boss
52. Kelly Carpenter, Detective
53. Eloy Jimenez, CWS
54. Dalton Varsho, Thor
55. Hunter Renfroe, KC
56. Austin Hayes, Bal Island
57. Jeff McNeil, New York
58. Joey Wiemer, Mill
59. Whit Merrifield, Phi Phi
60. Alex Kirillov, Min
61. Adam Duvall, Atlanta
62. Brent Luker, Oak
63. Alex Bardugo, New York
64. Luke Lally, Sea
65. Giancarlo Stanton, New York
66. Mark Kanha, Detective
67. Luis Matos, SF
68. Nelson Velasquez, KC
69. Lee Jung Hoo, SF
70. Will Benson, Shin
71. Stephen Kwan, Cle
72. Luis Rengifo, LAA
73. Randall Grichuk, Ali
74. Lars Nootvaar, StL
75. Andrew Benintendi, CWS
76. Jared Kelenic, Atlanta
77. Harold Ramirez, TB
78. Max Kepler, Min
79. Joc Pederson, Ali
80. Mitch Haniger, Sea
81. Brian Delacruz, Mia
82. Chris Taylor, LAD
83. Matt Wallner, Min
84. Jose Siri, TB
85. Charlie Blackmon, Colonel
86. Alec Thomas, Ali
87. Colton Kauser, Bal
88. Michael Conforto, SF
89. Lamonte Wade, SF
90. MJ Melendez, KC
91. Parker Meadows, Det.
92. Michael A. Taylor, Pitt
93. Mil Jackson Chorio
94. Will Brennan, Cre.
95. Willi Castro, Min
96. Brandon Marsh, Phi
97. Trent Grisham, New York
98. Brenton Doyle, Colonel
99. Garrett Mitchell, Mill
100. Seth Brown, Oak
101. Jesus Sanchez, Mia
102. Mike Yastrzemski, SF
103. John Barty, Mia
104. Eddie Rosario was
105. Leody Taveras, Tex.
106. Oscar Colas, CWS
107. Kris Bryant, Colonel
108. Harrison Bader, New York
109. Miles Straw, Cre
110. Quique Hernandez, LAD
111. Jurickson Profar, South Dakota
112. Pete Crowe Armstrong, CHC
113. Robbie Grossman, FA
114. Drew Waters, KC
115. Senger Peralta, CHC
116. JJ Brady, Oak
117. Joey Gallo, was
118. Edward Olivares, Pitt
119. Manuel Margot, Min
120. Adam Frazier, KC
121. Tyrone Taylor, New York
122. Ramon Laureano, Cle
123. Kevin Kiermaier, Thor
124. Brendan Donovan, StL
125. Jake McCarthy, Ali
This week’s team name
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