Some call this the greatest rivalry in sports.
At least, it’s the best rivalry in college hoops.
Duke travels to Chapel Hill on Saturday for another big game, the Blue Devils vs. the Tar Heels.
North Carolina still leads the all-time rivalry with a 143-117 record, but Duke is on a two-game winning streak.
Saturday’s matchup is especially important because these teams hold the top two spots in the ACC standings – UNC is 9-1 and Duke is 7-2.
The University of North Carolina dropped its first conference game on Tuesday, losing 74-73 to Georgia Tech.
Therefore, Saturday is set up as a potential rebound spot.
But these numbers don’t do the Tar Heels any favors.
Instead, our Duke vs. North Carolina predictions and picks target low-scoring games.
Duke vs. North Carolina predictions
The Tar Heels have a supernova pace and post offense.
The guard trio of Elliott Caddo, RJ Davis and Cormac Ryan runs the floor and drops the ball low to post merchant Armando Bacot.
So what’s the key to stopping the Heels?
It’s about playing good transition and post-up defense.
Luckily, John Scheyer has both.
The Blue Devils aren’t elite when it comes to preventing efficient transition scoring (1.00 PPP allowed, 57th percentile), but they are elite when it comes to denying those opportunities outright.
The Blue Devils allow the 30th fewest transition possessions per game (9.1) and rank 88th among teams in fast break points allowed per game (7.3).
Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor are three strong defensive guards with the athleticism to stay in North Carolina’s backcourt and the physicality to get thrown out of games.
Meanwhile, Kyle Filipowski and Mark Mitchell are surprisingly capable interior defenders, as the Blue Devils rank in the top 20 nationally in post-up PPP allowed (.68).
Both would make Bakot’s life difficult.
Therefore, I expect the Blue Devils to heavily negate the Tar Heels’ pace-and-post offense.
On the other side of the court, the Heels should be hung with Filipovski, so I don’t like an offensive matchup against the Devils.
This is Duke’s primary method of scoring, and North Carolina is above average in PPP allowed (.96 PPP, 65th percentile) for ball-screen roll men. His UNC forwards, including Bacot, Jalen Washington, and Harrison, have proven to be skilled defenders. Ingram.
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Additionally, North Carolina has one of the best transition defenses in the nation (9.9 possessions allowed per game, 61st nationally; 0.84 PPP allowed, 5th nationally), so neither team will be up or down easily. .
In other words, I don’t think either team is scoring efficiently in the open or half court, and I don’t think either team is producing second-chance points against two of the best defensive and rebounding teams in the ACC. UNC is ranked No. 2. The ACC ranks first in conference-only defensive rebounding percentage, with Duke ranked fourth.
This all leads to a rock fight between rivals with low scores.
The last two games were like that.
The Dukes won the last two games 62-57 and 63-57, respectively, with the final total flying between 143-145 in both games.
We should see a similar play-out, with Duke relentlessly denying North Carolina’s pace and post, and both teams effectively cleaning the glass while the Heels protect Filipovski in the pick-and-roll.
I would be willing to bet on another game between Duke and the North Carolina Under.
Duke vs. North Carolina picks
Less than 152.5
