There’s a sense of uncertainty lingering, but June could be when we start seeing the effects of the new tariffs, according to a prominent economist.
As reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on May 2, non-farm payroll employment increased by 177,000 jobs in April, which is a slight decline from March’s addition of 185,000. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
While some indicators seem positive, there’s been a decrease in GDP for the first time in three years—from January to March, it fell by 0.3% annually.
- Manager of the Political Action Committee, AVMA, Washington, DC
- State Campaign Director, American Promise, Concord
- Senior Policy Specialist, Arnold & Porter, Washington, DC
- Senior Education Policy Counsel, Civil Rights Commission under Washington, DC Law
- Federal Program Associate, Feldesman Leifer LLP, Washington, DC
However, President Trump’s announcement about a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. imports came on April 2, with higher tariffs on imports from 57 countries, ranging from 11% to 50%. This went into effect on April 5.
The last “previous” job report?
In light of the latest employment overview, Andrew Flowers from Appcast Economist posed a thought-provoking question in a recent video: “Is this the last ‘previous’ job report?”
He noted that the healthcare sector saw the addition of 50,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 24,000, and professional and business services brought in 17,000 jobs.
Flowers also pointed out a gain of 29,000 jobs in transport and warehousing for April, showing that consumers and businesses are rushing to purchase foreign goods.
As a consumer, you might notice online discounts on products before retail prices spike due to tariffs. This has led to more sales and a heightened need for trucking and warehouse staff. But, the question remains—how sustainable is this uptick?
He flagged a federal workforce reduction of 9,000 jobs last month, which many expected.
Reflecting on the April employment report, Flowers had mixed feelings about the second quarter. “It shows strength, yet tariffs pose a significant shock. Shipment numbers have sharply declined. There are anecdotes from businesses noting they’re running low on stock in anticipation of potential tariff effects in the coming weeks and months.”
Potential insights in the data
Meanwhile, Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, acknowledged that this report could serve as a benchmark for measuring tariff impacts, although it might be premature.
In a detailed LinkedIn post, he echoed many of Flowers’ observations but added that manufacturing employment saw a decrease of 1,000 in April.
This minor decline in manufacturing jobs could disappoint voters who hoped for a boost in American manufacturing through presidential campaigns.
Zhao emphasized that the real effects of tariffs might not surface for some time. “The job market can lag behind the overall economy, as it takes businesses a while to adjust their workforce to changes.” He noted that many companies have preemptively stocked up, but the exposure to tariffs varies by sector. The full effect may take half the year to become apparent.
This uncertainty is making many businesses cautious about making significant decisions. There’s a sense of surprise in the unpredictability of the market, leading some firms to pause or even cancel hiring efforts.
Job seekers are feeling the strain too, as competition remains tough and fewer opportunities are available. Overall job openings fell by 7.4% year-on-year in April.
Additionally, KPMG’s real-time data indicated declines in job openings in key states like California, New York, and Massachusetts, with noticeable federal cuts in Washington, D.C., Virginia, and Maryland.
It’s a challenging time for job hunting. Those already employed who are looking for new opportunities are also struggling with increased workloads due to hiring freezes, making the process even more exhausting.
For those navigating this complex job market, it’s worthwhile to monitor new opportunities as they come up.
Regular updates are available on the job board, which lists a variety of roles in policy, communications, and similar areas.
Stay informed and check back often for the latest job openings.
