Editor Daily Rundown: Last Jobs Report Before Midterms Is Bad News For Dems

BREAKING THIS AM… FINAL JOBS REPORT BEFORE MIDTERMS LEAVES DEMS LIMPING INTO FINISH LINE… Unemployment Surges Above Expectations As The Number Of Jobless Americans Rises

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in October, up from expectations it would hold steady at 3.5%, as the number of jobless Americans rose to 6.1 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.

Labor force participation nudged down 0.1% from September to October, to 62.2%, according to the BLS. Despite employers adding 261,000 jobs overall in October, down from 315,000 in September, the number of unemployed people rose by 306,000, up to 6.1 million, the highest level since February, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The unemployment range has hovered between 3.5% to 3.7% since March, and labor force participation has hovered 1.2 percentage points below the pre-pandemic standard set in February 2020, the BLS reported. Monthly job growth has been slowing, with employers adding 372,000 jobs per month in the third quarter of 2022, down from 543,000 in the third quarter of 2021, according to The Wall Street Journal.

 

SENATE PRIME FOR A GOP TAKEOVER… POLITICO: GOP finally off the mat: ‘We’re going to get the Senate’

The biggest boost for the GOP is in Pennsylvania, where Democrats’ monthslong lead has nearly evaporated: Mehmet Oz now has at least a decent chance of winning after Democrat John Fetterman grappled with symptoms from a May stroke during their lone debate and faced a cavalcade of attack ads. Whichever party wins that state will have multiple pathways to the majority.

In other battleground states, Democratic incumbents Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Raphael Warnock of Georgia are trying to hold on, while the GOP shows late momentum against Democratic incumbents in Arizona and New Hampshire. Democrats could yet defy conventional wisdom and expand their majority, but Republicans are starting to predict a takeover.

 

RCP PROJECTS A 54-46 REPUBLICAN SENATE…

 

DEMS PREP FOR ‘MIDTERM DRUBBING’ … WAPO: Democrats fear midterm drubbing as party leaders rush to defend blue seats

While many Democrats have privately believed for months that Republicans were likely to take the House, they have expressed increasing fears in recent days that voters could hand the GOP a significant majority — an outcome that would amount to a major rebuke of the party in power. In some cases, the party appears to be conceding seats it previously competed for, a retrenchment that strategists worry could signal a “red wave” of widespread Republican victories on traditionally Democratic turf.

While the battle for control of the Senate remains closely contested — with both parties pouring millions of dollars into a handful of states that will determine whether Democrats maintain, or even add to, their slim majority — in the House the debate has shifted to predicting how large the new Republican majority will be. Democrats have 220 seats in the House now, and need 218 to maintain control.

One House Democratic strategist said that if Democrats hold 200 to 205 seats, they will consider it a good night. If the party ends up with 190 seats or less — a loss of 30 seats that would require several districts Biden carried by double-digits to flip — that would reflect a big red wave, said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. […]

 

MORE… DEMS PANIC THAT GOP COULD SWEEP SOUTH TEXAS…

[T]he party has grown increasingly concerned that Republicans have a path to win all three House seats in South Texas, a longtime Democratic stronghold.

Party leaders in Texas and Washington have long expected that Republicans could gain a foothold in the region by flipping the state’s 15th Congressional District, where Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz has run an aggressive and well-funded campaign. But, now, Democrats are alarmed by GOP momentum they’re seeing in the neighboring 34th and 28th districts, where Biden won by nearly 16 points and more than seven points, respectively.

 

IT’S A TREND… DEMS ARE SHEDDING HISPANIC VOTERS… ‘WE’RE TALKING ABOUT RACISM AND THE GREEN NEW DEAL AND DEFUNDING THE POLICE, AND WE’RE FREAKING THEM OUT’ … JOHN SEXTON: Why Democrats are losing Hispanics: ‘We’re freaking them out’

 

EXCERPT FROM THE ATLANTIC:

María-Elena López, who held a variety of positions under [Juan] Cuba in [Miami-Dade] county party, saw this shift taking place in real time. She believes that there is no real mystery to it: While Trump successfully portrayed himself as a populist achieving hard-won economic growth—signing tax cuts into law, touting a record-shattering stock market, boasting the lowest Hispanic unemployment rate in history—Democrats came across as a bunch of out-of-touch idealogues. Promises of shared social progress, she told me, offend the sensibilities of many first- and second-generation immigrants who hate the idea of government handouts.

“We’re not a political party, we’re a charity. And you know what? These people don’t want charity,” López said. “These immigrants come here to make money and keep their families safe. They are not here because the sea levels are rising, or because of social justice, or anything else. We’re out there talking about racism and the Green New Deal and defunding the police, and we’re freaking them out.”

 

THE AUTHOR OF DEMS’ REPLACEMENT THEORY NOW SAYS DEMS MADE A HUGE MISTAKE WITH HISPANICS… RUY TEIXERA: Hispanic Voters on the Eve of the 2022 Election

This is obviously bad for the Democrats’ immediate electoral prospects. But it also cuts the ground out from under their leading electoral theory of the case: that the “rising American electorate”, with a starring role for the burgeoning ranks of minority voters, will deliver them victories in the future. It is overwhelmingly Hispanics who are driving the increase in the nonwhite population and if they continue moving toward the GOP—as they are and in a big way—the whole theory falls apart.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced a litany of liberal causes around race and other issues that are dear to the hearts of Democratic activists. This was a flawed assumption. In reality, Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly an upwardly mobile, patriotic population with practical and down to earth concerns focused on jobs, the economy, health care, effective schools and public safety.

In short, they are normie voters.

 

BY THE WAY, TEIXERA NOW ARGUES THAT DEMOCRATS BADLY MANGLED THE POINT OF HIS 2002 BOOK, ‘THE EMERGING DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY,’ AND THAT THEIR PLANS TO REPLACE WHITE VOTERS WITH ‘PEOPLE OF COLOR’ WERE ‘BASED ON A DANGEROUS MISUNDERSTANDING’… FLASHBACK… JUL 2020… RUY TEIXEIRA: Demography Is Not Destiny

In our book, we argue that Democrats should take advantage of a set of interrelated social, economic and demographic changes, including the growth of minority communities and cultural shifts among college graduates.

But we also emphasized that building this majority would require a very broad coalition, including many voters drawn from the white working class. This crucial nuance was quickly lost. And so, many Democratic pundits, operatives and elected officials have falsely come to believe that demographics are destiny. […]

If Democrats don’t correct their misunderstanding of what it takes for them to win elections, the next decade could turn out to be just as bitter as the last. But even after ten painful years, their most influential operatives continue to believe that demographic changes will inevitably give them a decisive advantage.

 

DHS CONFIRMS: PELOSI ASSAILANT IN US ILLEGALLY… WAPO: Immigration officials confirm alleged Pelosi attacker was in the U.S. illegally

The man accused of attacking House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer is a Canadian citizen who is the United States illegally and is facing possible deportation after his criminal cases are resolved, the Department of Homeland Security said late Wednesday.

“U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) lodged an immigration detainer on Canadian national David DePape with San Francisco County Jail, Nov. 1, following his Oct. 28 arrest,” DHS officials said in an email.

ICE, which is under Homeland Security, sends “detainers” to state and local law enforcement asking them to notify the agency before releasing a foreign citizen who could also be deported. Deportations are civil proceedings that often take place after criminal cases are resolved, but immigrants also have been detained after they post bail.

DePape, 42, is facing state and federal criminal charges in the gruesome attack on Paul Pelosi, 82, early Friday morning, and for threatening Nancy Pelosi. DePape has pleaded not guilty and remains in custody.

 

WAPO JOURNALIST SCOLDS PEOPLE WHO WANT TO SEE PELOSI FOOTAGE… PHILIP BUMP: ‘Release the video’ is mostly a way to extend the conspiracy theory

More transparency and more information are good when considered responsibly. The challenge is that one can no more control how that information is applied than the people who, say, write magazine articles scrutinized for patterns of numbers by the corkboard set can control getting looped into a delusion.

The requests for video footage of the Pelosi attack, like the request for footage from the Capitol riot, is not primarily about the footage. It is primarily about using the request for the footage as a way to imply that something is being hidden.

 

SOMEONE FIRED SHOTS INTO THE FAMILY HOME OF A REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE… CAROLINA JOURNAL: Shooting at NC-14 GOP candidate Pat Harrigan family home, none injured

Carolina Journal has learned that on Oct. 18, a shooting took place at the residence the parents of GOP congressional candidate Pat Harrigan, who is running against Democrat state Sen. Jeff Jackson in NC’s 14th congressional district.

CJ spoke with Harrigan campaign manager Brandon Craft, who said that someone shot into the Hickory residence and that the investigation has been on-going since that time. Harrigan’s parents currently own and live in the home, but Craft said that Harrigan’s children were in the home when the incident occurred and the shot entered only a few feet from where the children were sleeping.

 

FBI REPORTEDLY INVESTIGATING… BRETT JENSEN, WBT NEWS: BREAKING: The FBI is investigating a shooting at Republican congressional candidate Pat Harrigan’s home in October. His children were inside the house at the time & feet from the shooting. He is running against Democrat Jeff Jackson in District 14. More to come! (THREAD)

 

CNN’S TAPPER CHOKEHOLDS DCCC CHAIRMAN FOR SPENDING MONEY TO ADVANCE GOP ‘ELECTION DENIERS’ … ED MORRISSEY: Tapper to DCCC chair: Why did Biden complain about the “MAGA” candidates on whom Dems spent $53M? (VIDEO)

Tapper challenged DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney on the deluge of dollars he and other Democrats poured into GOP primaries in order to set up allegedly extreme opponents for Democrats’ re-election campaigns. Democrats spent $53 million to pick those candidates, Tapper says, so why should people take Biden seriously on his claim that they represent a unique “threat to democracy”? […]

Tapper then zooms in one one particularly hypocritical part of that strategy. Peter Meijer took a big political risk in voting to sustain the impeachment of Donald Trump and supporting Democrats in that effort after the January 6 riot. Supposedly, this is the kind of Republican than Biden wants the GOP to promote, according to his speeches on the topic in late August and last night.

Instead, Democrats and the DCCC stabbed Meijer in the back in order to get a more extreme opponent for the general election.

 

MEANWHILE… TAPPER DEMOTED AT CNN… HILL: CNN’s Jake Tapper to leave prime time following midterms

Jake Tapper’s stint in CNN’s prime-time television slot is coming to a close.

The network confirmed on Wednesday the anchor will return to his duties hosting “The Lead” at 4 p.m. after the midterm elections.

Tapper was chosen in September by new President Chris Licht to host a show at 9 p.m., a slot that’s been occupied by a rotating cast of pundits in recent months since Chris Cuomo was fired by the network late last year.

At the time, the network said the switch in Tapper’s time slot, and several others CNN made to its lineup for the midterm elections, were expected to run through the week of the Nov. 8.

 

SHEP SMITH OUT AT CNBC… DYLAN BYERS: SCOOP: NBCUniversal is about to undergo significant layoffs and cost cuts in the weeks ahead, sources familiar tell me. This will start with Shepard Smith and his @thenewsoncnbc team. More to come @PuckNews

 

REPORT: FORMER CBS BOSS TIPPED OFF TO SEXUAL ASSAULT ALLEGATIONS BY LAPD… VICE: Cops Allegedly Helped Cover Up Sexual Assault Allegations Against Les Moonves

In November 2017, as the #MeToo movement was sweeping across the country and media companies were ousting problematic executives, CBS and Moonves learned that he was likely in trouble, according to the report. On Nov. 17, the very same day that a woman walked into a LAPD station and reported that Moonves had sexually assaulted her in the 1980s, an LAPD captain called an executive at CBS, the report alleges.

“Somebody walked in the station about a couple hours ago and made allegations against your boss regarding a sexual assault,” the captain allegedly said in a voicemail. “It’s confidential, as you know, but call me, and I can give you some of the details and let you know what the allegation is before it goes to the media or gets out.”

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