Egg Prices Show Fluctuations Amid Bird Flu Concerns
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins recently discussed the shifting dynamics within the food system, particularly relating to SNAP benefits and other topics. Meanwhile, egg prices experienced a significant drop last year after they had spiked due to a widespread bird flu outbreak that started in 2022. However, there’s a lingering risk of the virus re-emerging, which could lead to price fluctuations later on this year.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data showing a 3.8% decrease in egg prices for February, leading to a notable 42.1% drop compared to the previous year. In contrast, overall consumer price index (CPI) inflation sat at a 2.4% increase year-on-year.
According to economist Bernt Nelson from the American Farm Federation, the U.S. egg sector has been somewhat erratic since 2022 due to fluctuations in avian influenza cases, affecting anywhere from about 20 million birds to nearly zero at different times of the year. He pointed out that these situations have sometimes contributed to spikes in egg prices, which were around $4.14 per dozen in December 2024. By March 2025, prices peaked at $6.22, but have since decreased to about $2.50 per dozen, based on BLS and USDA Economic Research Service figures.
Examining February’s Inflation Trends
As of late 2025, egg prices have fallen about 12% below the five-year average, marking a recovery from the price shock tied to the outbreak. This stabilization seems to have coincided with the USDA increasing its detection initiatives aimed at curbing the spread of the virus.
Nelson highlighted that the USDA has made substantial upgrades in the past year, including various national assessments focused on enhancing agricultural hygiene measures — like implementing footbaths on farms. Although these resources are provided at no cost to farmers, they require the implementation of necessary changes to bolster farm safety. He mentioned that the capacity to maintain a steady supply amidst potential disruptions has been significantly improved.
Ongoing Inflation and Market Stability
Over the past six months, there has been a rebound in production following the bird flu outbreak, which has reduced prices beneath pre-outbreak levels. However, recent surveillance by the USDA indicates notably high viral loads in wild migratory birds, which could have consequences for the egg, turkey, and broiler industries.
Nelson noted that around 14 million birds were affected by these recent viral detections, a figure surpassing those observed in specific previous months when cases were low. He mentioned there were roughly 4 million birds detected in March 2019, primarily due to some major avian flu detections announced recently.
He cautioned that the situation can be unpredictable; a few quieter months could suddenly turn turbulent if a major farm encounters an outbreak, potentially disrupting the supply chain rapidly. While the current impact on supply remains unconfirmed, ongoing exposure of large bird populations to avian influenza may likely lead to rising prices.
In cases where avian influenza impacts a farmer’s flock, the USDA compensation program covers certain cleaning expenses, but not the downtime in production that can extend for months. This downtime can impose significant mental and financial stress on the farmer, contributing further to the complexities of the supply chain.
