If current trends hold, it will become increasingly difficult for Democrats to win the Electoral College and the White House, according to new projections from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Democratic strongholds like California and New York are likely to decline in population and plurality, while Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida are likely to gain votes. That will lead to changes in 2030.
These changes could help widen the Republican map unless Democrats can find a way to win Texas, Florida, or other states lost to President-elect Trump.
“People are moving from blue states to red states, and this points to a national trend that bodes well for Republicans overall,” said Constantin Keller, a Republican strategist.
He suggested that the movement was driven by people who supported the policies of the Republican-led government.
“There's a reason we go from a blue state to a red state,” Kelard said.
Although the census is conducted only once every 10 years, the bureau annually releases national and state population projections, showing trends in each state ahead of the official count.
of Latest predictions Most states' populations are growing, but at varying rates, with population growth being the biggest driver of growth.
This shift could shake up political power well into the next decade, according to an analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice. This estimate is based on population growth trends reported by the bureau for the period July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2024.
According to the Center's estimates,California and New York, by far the two largest states in the Democratic coalition on the electoral map, would lose four and two seats, respectively. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida, two major states in the coalition that President-elect Trump will win in 2024, are estimated to gain four seats each.
All told, if the estimated new map had been in place in 2024, Trump would have won 10 more electors and Vice President Harris would have won 10 fewer electors.
Although this difference is relatively small compared to the total number of 538 electors at stake in the election, it could still be key in the current political environment defined by close races.
Joseph Fishkin, a law professor at the University of California, said: “This situation of political rivalry and deep-seated partisan stereotypes and resentment is not a typical combination in American politics, but it is exactly what we are experiencing right now.'' , that's the situation we're in.” , Los Angeles, where he teaches and writes about election law and the American political system.
Each of the past three presidential elections, including the Trump era, would not have tilted in the opposite direction because of these expected changes, but when campaigning and focusing on a handful of battleground states, political candidates' calculations for deciding what to prioritize may change. state.
Keller pointed out that under this estimate, the total number of votes Republicans would receive is roughly equal to the number of electoral votes in their own state, Arizona, which is currently worth 11 electoral votes and will be worth 11 electoral votes in 2030. It is expected that he will receive one more vote after that.
“All of a sudden, we had one less state to win,” he said. “Or if you're a Democrat, it's like one more state taken off the board. We've had some pretty close presidential elections, so this is obviously a big issue.”
Several caveats remain in the interpretation of this data.
A lot can change in five years, including changes in population. Cook Political Report senior editor Dave Wasserman said the projections don't bode well for Democrats, but he noted that the Census projections start at the end of 2023. Looked terrible for the party.
Five years from now, things may look different.
Fishkin said a nation's political makeup can change significantly, especially as a result of domestic and international politics. Texas has voted Republican in statewide elections for decades, but Democrats have become increasingly bullish on reversing Republican support, in part because the state's population has grown. are.
However, this prediction follows a trend that has existed at least throughout the 21st century, although it is not as pronounced as in the past. While Florida and Texas have been gaining seats for decades, New York has lost seats with each reapportionment cycle.
California continued to gain seats until the end of the 20th century, but since 2010 it has leveled off, and in 2020 it lost seats for the first time in its history.
Some Democrats said the changes mean the party needs to find new strategies to win in the Electoral College.
Since 2016, the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have been key to the Democratic Party's winning map and will determine their chances of victory. But even if they win, it won't be enough for the Democratic candidate to win when every other state votes, as they did in November.
“It's another flashing red light for Democrats,” said Democratic strategist John Reinisch. “I think Democrats can easily see their electoral base shrinking the way it is.”
Reinisch said this would put more pressure on the party to expand the map.
Crimson McDonald, a Kentucky-based Democratic strategist, said the party needs to go where it hasn't been in recent cycles to start a dialogue with communities outside of its strongholds.
Keller and Fishkin said the change could have an even bigger impact on the House because state officials would choose how district boundaries are drawn and decide what each district is made of. .
If a Democratic or Republican-leaning state loses House seats, it doesn't necessarily mean that all of those seats will go to the same party, but it could make the path to a majority, especially for smaller parties, more difficult. . Few competitive districts.
“If you asked Mike Johnson how many more 10 seats he wanted right now, he would be really happy,” Keller said, referring to the Republican speaker of the House from Louisiana.
Fishkin said both sides are gerrymandering, but Republicans are more aggressive and winning key seats. Republican lawmakers draw maps for 2020 redistricting cycle in multiple stateswhile the independent commission won one-fifth of the vote and Democrats took just over 10 percent.
“Democrats have every reason to be concerned, because given the structure of our political system, especially the special powers currently given to localities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, Democrats have every reason to be concerned. There is,” he said.
“Democrats need to find a way to win in areas that lean more Republican than the average of the United States. So it's difficult, and this number…is going to be a little more difficult than it has been in the past.”
