Voter Decisions on the Left Side of Politics

The question of how far-left voters are willing to go may start to be answered as the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) gains traction in various Democratic primaries nationwide.

Voter turnout is expected in states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Carolina, Connecticut, Alabama, and Vermont, with key races notably taking place in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South Carolina.

In South Carolina, primary voters who previously backed Lindsey Graham over challenger Mark Lynch are returning to select a new candidate following Graham’s passing.

President Trump has endorsed Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darling Graham Nordon, who recently took office as a U.S. Senator. Even though she lacks political experience, she was appointed by Trump-supporting Governor Henry McMaster after Trump lobbied for her.

Surveys indicate that Nordon and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) could be primed for a runoff against Rep. Russell Frey and the previously scandalized former governor and Rep. Mark Sanford.

If no candidate secures more than half of the votes, a runoff will occur on August 25th.

The Minnesota Democratic Senate primary underscores the ongoing battle between the traditional Democratic Party and a more progressive faction that is increasingly influential.

Congresswoman Angie Craig has publicly supported progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, who has emerged as a front-runner.

In Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), leaning left, does not officially include local DSA involvement in the campaign. However, Flanagan clearly identifies with the DSA’s ideals.

Even with Craig’s support from Chuck Schumer’s establishment wing, Schumer and the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee have been cautious in engaging with Craig in a race where Washington Democrats are facing scrutiny.

Initially, Craig emphasized her pragmatic approach and collaborative skills but later shifted away from that stance. Notably, she publicly apologized for her vote on the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of certain illegal immigrants.

A key race to watch is in Wisconsin, where Francesca Hong continues to lead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Hong, affiliated with the DSA and its more radical points, has not received an endorsement from the national DSA or its prominent supporters.

While her positions resonate with DSA values, she’s faced criticism for not demonstrating depth or confidence in handling tough questions during her campaign. Even socialist figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders have withheld their endorsements.

After the primary, Hong is expected to restructure her team, perhaps suggesting a need to invigorate her campaign or, who knows, maybe deflect some blame onto her staff.

The polls in South Carolina will close at 7 p.m. ET, followed by Alabama, Vermont, and Connecticut at 8 p.m. ET.

This story will be updated.

Updated at 11:31pm ET:

According to reports, Flanagan has emerged victorious in Minnesota. This represents a significant defeat for the establishment faction within the Democratic Party, potentially heightening tensions against Schumer.

Updated at 11:27pm ET:

Let’s reflect on the evening’s three major races.

In South Carolina, Sen. Darling Graham Nordone and Rep. Ralph Norman will be headed for a runoff for the Republican Senate nomination. Although Trump endorsed Nordon, she garnered only about one-third of the votes.

In Minnesota, progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan holds a commanding lead over Rep. Angie Craig in the Democratic primary, with some media outlets already declaring the race.

In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong and David Crowley are neck and neck in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, despite projections showing Hong winning by a significant margin. Congressman Tom Tiffany has secured the Republican nomination and seems eager to challenge Hong.

Updated at 11:24pm ET:

For the first time tonight, Hong has taken a slim lead, edging out Crowley by a few hundred votes. With over 83 percent of the votes counted, some ballots may not be included tonight.

Updated at 10:28pm ET:

Hong finds herself in a tight spot.

With 70 percent of the votes in, she’s trailing Crowley by just 600 votes.

This could be one of the most surprising outcomes this election cycle, especially for the polling industry, which seems to have overestimated the success of DSA candidates. Counting is already planned, but with the election approaching, the integrity of the votes—especially for DSA contenders—might come into question, affecting future campaigns.

Updated at 9:56pm ET:

In Minnesota, progressive Peggy Flanagan holds a lead over Angie Craig in the Democratic Senate primary, polling at around 51.9 percent to Craig’s 44.2 percent.

This is one of the night’s pivotal races that might demonstrate the extent of the progressive movement’s influence in the Democratic Party.

Updated at 9:54pm ET:

Michelle Tafoya, previously a sportswriter, has clinched the Republican nomination for the Minnesota State Senate, as reported by the Associated Press. Although the votes are still rolling in, she already has over 50 percent, overshadowing her opponents.

Updated at 9:30pm ET:

Upset alert! Will Hong face defeat in Wisconsin?

Progressives were cautious in supporting her following Abdulrahmad Mohamed El-Sayed’s performance in Michigan, where he won by just one point despite polls suggesting a larger margin.

Could the predictions for Hong prove to be overly optimistic as well?

Although he wins only 6 percent of the time, Kalsi’s prediction market odds have dropped from 96 to below 50 percent, with Crowley now in the lead.

Updated at 9:34pm ET:

In Connecticut, an incumbent may be unseated. Democratic Rep. John Larson, in office since 1999, is likely to lose his primary to Luke Bronin.

Age seems to matter more than views; Larson, 78, recently had a seizure during a House floor speech.

Updated at 9:24pm ET:

According to the Associated Press, Rep. Tom Tiffany is expected to be the Republican nominee for governor in Wisconsin, which isn’t surprising given his stature in a state with shifting political dynamics.

Updated at 9:05pm ET:

In the Associated Press projection, Ralph Norman and Darling Graham Nordone are set to face off on August 25th for the Republican Senate nomination in South Carolina.

Despite Trump’s backing, Nordone only managed about a third of the votes with 82% tallied. Norman has performed impressively, securing around 24%, making him the frontrunner against the incumbent nominee.

What’s Trump likely to do? Will he exert pressure on Nordone? Norman, usually aligned with Trump but occasionally diverging, backed Nikki Haley for 2024, possibly for state rather than ideological reasons.

This runoff could see low turnout, which might bring some unexpected twists.

Updated at 8:50 PM ET:

Norman has moved ahead of Frye into second place, leading by nearly 10,000 votes, which in a low-turnout election is about a 3 percentage point advantage. Voter turnout is around 74%, hinting at a quick decision.

Updated at 8:18pm ET:

The Associated Press anticipates that Sen. Nordone will proceed to the runoff as expected, with Reps. Fry and Norman tightly contested at around 23% each and Fry holding a slight edge.

Updated at 8:15pm ET:

The race remains exceptionally close in this midterm special election with low turnout. Norman briefly took second place but Fry has regained the lead by just over 2,000 votes.

Predictably, Fry’s northeastern congressional district supported him while Norman’s northwest district leaned in his favor. Nordon seems to have a significant lead in most other areas, while Sanford is performing well in his native Charleston.

Updated at 8:07 PM ET:

Sen. Nordone is leading in South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary, claiming around 32 percent of the vote thus far, indicating she’s likely to continue on in the race.

Rep. Fry is trailing with 26% and Rep. Norman with 21%. Despite being a notable figure, Sanford has only 15%.