A presidential historian and professor who has accurately predicted nine of the past 10 US elections says he doesn't think an “October surprise” will affect his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election. He said no.
American University professor Dr. Alan Lichtman predicted in early September that the Democratic candidate would emerge victorious next month against his Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump.
Lichtman stood by his predictions Saturday, even if a last-minute scandal involving either candidate were to be uncovered this month, less than 30 days before the Nov. 5 election.
“One of the greatest myths in American politics is the October Surprise,'' says a renowned historian. told CNN's Michael Smerconish. “I never changed my predictions in response to October's surprise, because the key is to measure the overall strength of the current government and not be swayed by campaign events. It is from.”
The 77-year-old Lichtman refers to the 13 categories he uses to assess each candidate's chances of winning the White House.
He said in September that Harris had an advantage in eight of the 13 keys, while Trump had an advantage in three.
And there is certainly historical evidence to support the professor's statement that the “October Surprise'' is a fabrication.
One of the most recent and infamous “October surprises” occurred a month before the 2016 election and showed President Trump making disturbing and shocking comments about his treatment of women. The “Access Hollywood” tape was leaked to the Washington Post.
“You don't even wait. And when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything… grab 'em. You can do anything,” Trump said in 2005. In the video, he talks to TV host Billy Bush about the women he wants to seduce.
Trump still won the election, as Lichtman correctly predicted with his key system.
The scholar, who is a registered Democrat, claims to have accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, but it's not without some caveats noted by critics. .
For example, when he predicted that Al Gore would win in the 2000 election because George W. Bush won the Electoral College and Democrats won the popular vote even if they did not reach the White House. He claimed to have predicted the winner.
But 16 years later, he discarded that logic when he said Trump would win even if he became president because the Republicans lost the popular vote.
Lichtman said he has never changed his predictions in the past 40 years and that his prediction of a Harris victory is not the case.
Still, election forecasters encouraged Americans to go to the polls next month.
“The outcome is up to you, so go out and vote,” he said earlier.
Opinion polls of multiple candidates show the vice president leading Trump by 2 percentage points. Latest RealClearPolitics tally.
