An analysis of the 2024 presidential election by FiveThirtyEight found that although the election was close, President Joe Biden is still likely to win, despite his poor performance in the debates.
Five Thirty Eight found Biden was predicted to have a “50 in 100” chance of winning the November presidential election, while former President Donald Trump had a “49 in 100” chance of winning.
The predicted results were the results of a “2024 Presidential Election Simulation” by FiveThirtyEight.
new: Follow – Presidential Election Predictions (updated July 12)
Chance to win
Biden: 51%
Trump: 49%The Electoral College
Biden: 271 🏆
Trump: 267
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Battleground States Projected Margins• Michigan – 🔵 Biden +1.8
• Wisconsin – 🔵 Biden +1.1
•… pic.twitter.com/jSRv4CxOhw— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) July 12, 2024
FiveThirtyEight found that out of 1,000 simulations, Biden won 505 times and Trump won 491 times. There were four times in the simulation when no winner of the presidential election was reported between Biden and Trump.
“With 120 days until Election Day, our model believes the presidential election could go either way,” FiveThirtyEight said in an update on July 8. “Currently, of 1,000 election outcome simulations run by our model, 505 show President Joe Biden winning, and 491 show former President Donald Trump winning. There is still a small chance of a complete chaos scenario, in which four simulations show no candidate receiving a majority of the electoral votes, sending the election to the House of Representatives.”
This follows Biden’s performance in the June 27 presidential debate with President Trump, in which he appeared frozen, his voice raspy and he struggled to finish his prepared closing statement.
Since then, Biden has faced growing calls from several donors and Democrats to withdraw from the presidential race and “stand aside” to allow another candidate to run.
Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings is also among the Democratic Party donors calling for Biden to “step down.” The New York Times Weeks after hosting a fundraiser for Biden, he made it clear he didn’t believe Biden could win the presidential election.
According to a recent Emerson/DemNextGen poll, Trump is currently leading Biden in six battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
