The two Euro 2024 quarter-final matches on Saturday felt very different to previous ones.
The match, which kicks off at noon ET, pits a pressure-stricken and attacking-poor England against a clinical and experienced Switzerland in what is expected to be a tight, defensive affair.
Three hours later, Turkey will face the Netherlands, with both teams having no problem letting their guard down and taking advantage of their chances.
Let’s compare them and see which bet makes the most sense.
England v Switzerland: (12pm ET)
No team has been in a worse position in this tournament than Gareth Southgate’s England.
England went into Euro 2024 as favourites to end a 58-year winless run and were expected to comfortably progress through the latter stages of the tournament.
They are one win away from reaching the semi-finals, but the English team’s victory has been far from convincing.
England only managed two goals in the group stage, winning one, losing two and drawing zero (WDL), but an incredibly sweet draw to face Slovakia in the round of 16 has put them back in the running to win the tournament.
But England messed up against Slovakia and needed Jude Bellingham’s 95th-minute equaliser to save the tournament.
England have played four matches against Serbia, Slovenia, Denmark and Slovakia, scoring just three goals in regulation and allowing just 3.7 expected goals.
England supporters will point to their excellent defensive form throughout the tournament, but one cannot help but wonder whether that was down to the rigors of the schedule.
Switzerland are not the best team in the world but they will be the best attacking team England have ever faced by a significant margin.
The Swiss have scored seven goals in four games, generating an expected goal value of 5.3.
They also showed what they’re made of with a strong performance in a 1-1 draw with Germany in the group stage.
Switzerland’s defensive numbers are also pretty solid, only allowing 3 goals against an expected goal rating of 4.3, which is not too different from England’s.
Betting markets are predicting this match will be close and low scoring, and while it’s hard to argue with that logic, the odds correlating with how the match will play out are starting to get out of hand.
Switzerland has momentum in attack and England will have to find ways to create goal-scoring chances, so don’t be surprised if England start taking a few more risks.
England have the more talented team in this match and should be in command and come out victorious.
Probably the best course of action is to zig-zag when everyone else is zig-zag.
Recommendation: 2.5 or more goals in regulation (+145, DraftKings).
Türkiye v Netherlands: (3 p.m. ET)
No team has caused more chaos at Euro 2024 than Türkiye.
While most lower-ranked teams opt for a more conservative style of football in such tournaments, Turkey will play recklessly and hope skilled players like Arda Güler can make the difference.
Austria and Euro 2024 round of 16 football
July 2, 2024, against Turkey at Leipzig Stadium in Leipzig. AFP via Getty Images
The results so far have been three wins from four games, seven goals scored, six conceded and plenty of scoring chances.
This team knows they have holes in their defense, so they’re willing to try to overcome them rather than defending their home field. They’re brave.
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It took a while for Holland to reach the highest level in Germany, but Clockwork Oranje seems to have got there.
The Netherlands has scored seven goals and ranks third in creating big scoring chances.
They have had issues defensively too. Don’t think too much about this and just enjoy the show.
Recommendation: 2.5 or more goals in regulation (-145, DraftKings).
