Declining Enrollment in Maryland and Virginia Public Schools

There’s a bit of a puzzle when we look at public school enrollment drops in Maryland and Virginia. While public schools seem to be losing students, homeschooling is on the rise.

Reports indicate that experts attribute the decline in enrollment rates to factors like lower birth rates, migration trends, and rising housing expenses. But, it seems there’s more going on than just those usual explanations.

In both states, homeschooling fees have increased, which might influence how many kids are enrolling in public schools.

The University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service recently shared projections for public school enrollment. They noted a decrease of 1.2 percent in K-12 enrollment for 2025, equating to about 14,939 students. This trend follows a fairly stable period from 2021 to 2024. They also expect a broader decline of around 3 percent, or approximately 36,827 students, by 2030.

Across the DMV area, schools are rethinking their strategies as they adapt to these changes, impacting everything from construction plans to staffing.

Specifically, Virginia’s homeschooling numbers grew by 8,342 students between the 2022-23 and 2025-26 school years. Reportedly, the state data from the Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub shows a marked increase in homeschooling.

Maryland’s figures reveal a student drop of 11,322 from the previous year. Some experts suggest that homeschooling might be a key factor in this enrollment dip.

As noted by observers, the decline in enrollment correlates with falling birth rates that started back in 2016 and a significant rise in homeschooling, especially since the pandemic.

Interestingly, the number of homeschooling students in Maryland surged from 27,754 in the 2019-20 school year to 44,941 by 2021-22. Though there’s been a slight decline since, the numbers are still notably high at 40,653 for the 2025-26 year.

In Virginia, the homeschooling count jumped from 38,382 to 59,638 during the pandemic. After a temporary drop post-pandemic, the numbers are stabilizing again at around 59,055 for the current school year.

Another layer to the public school enrollment issue—especially in Virginia—seems to be the backlash against certain transgender policies and concerns surrounding transparency regarding incidents involving school staff.

Former Governor Glenn Youngkin has pushed for school choice laws that strengthen homeschooling privacy and demand clarity in implementing these policies.

In Montgomery County, Maryland, the public school system reported a loss of 4,504 students last year. Investigations have shed light on issues within public schools related to Title IX violations and other administrative problems.

Reports have surfaced about boys competing in girls’ sports and using girls’ facilities, leaving some girls feeling pressured to find alternatives.

Additionally, MCPS faced scrutiny over alleged misinformation from school leaders and various troubling incidents involving staff behavior that included bullying and harassment.

Virginia public schools have similarly sparked parental outrage over scandals and policies tied to transgender issues, with incidents—such as a court case surrounding a transgender student—gaining widespread attention.

Fairfax County faced its own challenges when a social worker was implicated in an incident involving abortion services for a student, prompting significant public backlash.