Welcome to the divisional round version of Celebrate The Fun. Football is fun there, and we establish that more energetically than Akira lives in Zom 100: Bucket List of the Dead (a great anime you should watch, by the way). It's often said that the divisional round is the best weekend in soccer, and in this case I agree. There was some great football played over the weekend with a spot in the conference championship on the line. Talk about a great match! Before you turn on the TV this weekend, here are some great matchups to watch, with a focus on the youth movements shaping this round of the playoffs.
rice is cooked
The Kansas City Chiefs offense…has had an interesting year, especially at the receiving position. But they're once again on the precipice of a conference title game and need a little bit of Rice in the mix when it comes to passing the ball.
Rookie WR Laci Rice from SMU had a slow start to the season, but has developed into one of the more reliable targets for the Kansas City offense since Week 12. Since Week 12, Rice has been ranked 11th in targets with 518 yards and three touchdowns. With his development, QB Patrick Mahomes has another reliable receiver target to work in the area between him and TE Travis Kelce.
It is in the YAC department that Rice has been active and improved this season. According to Sports Information Solutions, 373 of his 518 receiving yards since Week 12 came after the catch. His average target depth is 1.7, and he has led the NFL in screen receptions since Week 12. However, in Kansas City's wild-card win against the Miami Dolphins, Rice made more plays downfield in target areas, and I think the Chiefs can take advantage of that. against Buffalo in the divisional round. He led the Chiefs in targets against zone coverage, gaining 84 yards on six carries. Let's take a look at how he won and what will happen in this weekend's match.
One clip that really stands out is a first down vs. Cover 3 by the Dolphins. Rice is lined up in the slot closest to the line of scrimmage. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling runs a deep over and pulls under the safety and defender. Rice runs a deep sit route, but watch as Rice works toward Mahomes' open window. It's the type of movement the Chiefs receivers have been missing, and it's the rapport Rice and Mahomes have built all season.
Rice hasn't been used much as a downfield target, but when used in combination with Travis Kelce's gravity, Rice becomes a more powerful target. For the touchdown against Miami, Kelce ran an over-the-ball route. Notice how many Dolphins catch up to Kelce as he crosses, allowing Rice to run straight to the end zone. Rice has emerged as a top complement to Kelce and helped take the Chiefs to a higher level than before.
Where the Chiefs struggle is passing against man coverage. Although this year he faces the second-lowest man coverage of any year in the Mahomes era. However, the EPA total is the worst in the same period. Where Rice could start to be a winner is against man coverage downfield, where Rice displays special ability and physicality after the catch. The Dolphins run Cover 0 and Rice runs simple over routes, but look at his ability after the catch. That way, he could separate himself and give Kansas City a reliable target other than Travis Kelce.
Against the Bills, Rice will have to be a winner downfield. Buffalo may not have a lot of defensive depth, but they can put pressure on opposing defenses and make things difficult for themselves. For the Chiefs to get into Highmark Stadium and win, Rice will have to win against outside pressure and coverage.
bucks hoist colors
Tampa Bay's upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles answered a lot of questions. Will Philadelphia be able to push through the outside noise and emerge victorious (no)? Can the Eagles offense find a way to avoid becoming one-dimensional without AJ Brown?
The biggest question answered was whether the Bucks' defense could give Philadelphia enough problems, and they answered it strongly. Head coach Todd Bowles has a lot of problems with game management, but when he has time to plan for an opponent, he usually puts it in a blender. Let's take a look at what Tampa Bay did to hold Philadelphia to just nine points.
One thing that was notable early on was how the Bucks defended the Eagles' RPO game. Philadelphia has turned their offense into a lateral RPO team, one that takes advantage of slower defensive linemen who aren't blocked. What Tampa Bay did before the snap was rotate LB Lavonte David to the line of scrimmage where EDGE was and put EDGE in the off-ball spot where David would be. This means EDGE will force a change in blocking assignments as a blitzer from deep, while placing faster players on the outside to track perimeter plays.
Notice how Anthony Nelson and David swap positions just before the snap. Now, technically there are six people in the box and David is the top player and the ball is passed to him. Once Gainwell gets the ball, watch the Bucs' young defender go to work. Logan Hall was knocked back by RT's Lane Johnson, EDGE's Joe Tryon-Soyinka hurt Jason Kelce, and the play from there was a complete wash.
Pressure is a hallmark of Todd Bowles' defense, and the Bucs provided much of that pressure Monday night. Every time the Eagles went to an open formation, the Bucks found a way to blitz the unblocked player. This was one of my favorites and was an outrageous one that completely fooled the Eagles. Tampa lines up on Hurts' left side in an overload formation. But on the snap Tampa brings in both nickels and then drops both defensive tackles (lol). Hurts tries to get the ball to TE Dallas Goedert, but it falls incomplete. The Eagles were completely dismayed by the insane pressure to send him out.
One player who stands out for Tampa Bay is rookie DT Kariya Kanshi. Cuncey was extremely disruptive, using his lateral quickness and burst to overwhelm everyone on the Eagles' offensive line. Watch Kanshi completely crush his RG cam his Jurgens with nasty chops and swipes in this bag of hearts. A very impressive representation for a rookie, but he's not alone.
He showed it in the run game as well, using his quick hands and feet to evade offensive linemen. Here he gets Jason Kelce, which is something you don't see very often on a daily basis. You can also see what Tampa Bay wanted to do with David, moving him to Los Angeles right away.
Schematically speaking, it will not be easy to overwhelm our next opponent from the front. Detroit was very healthy up front, especially with their five-man protection. Tampa Bay will challenge them again this season, and I can't wait to see what Bowles cooks up.
Matchup Preview: Houston Texans' explosive passing game vs. Ravens' pass defense
Houston and Baltimore will meet again after the Ravens won 25-9, but make no mistake, this is not the same Houston Texans team. Their entire roster, especially their rookie quarterback, feels more confident than they did in Week 1. What will decide this game will be how Baltimore stops the Texans from producing explosives, especially with the Texans adding personnel.
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan offensive tree in San Francisco, and it shows in his personnel placement. They spent 23.4% of their plays this year with 21 players, fourth-most in the NFL behind the Dolphins (Shanahan), 49ers (Shanahan) and Ravens. It's easy to see why this is important. Gather your team around bigger personnel and allow them to attack downfield off-play actions. His 47.2% passing rate for 21 players ranks 10th in the NFL, and among QBs with 20-of-21 passing attempts, Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud leads the NFL with an average target depth of 11.4. If you launch a heavy attack like in an RPG game, like tank vs tank, they will try to hit you hard.
Take for example this TD that crushed the Cleveland Browns. Houston uses FB Andrew Beck with a 21-man lineup. This turns into a three-man throwback concept after the run fake brings up the middle defender. WR John Metchie runs back LOS as a checkdown vs. blitz. Nico Collins runs an over route to protect the line of sight and safety of the backside corner. Now, this looks like a three-man flood concept to the right with TE Dalton Schultz breaking towards the right pylon.
Not so fast, my friend!
Schultz ran the corner post, broke back toward the other side of the field, and Stroud, in a clean area outside the pocket away from the pass rush, fired a strike and the Texans scored just before the half. Impressive design and call by Slowik.
They will face a tough opponent in the form of the Ravens defense. The Ravens don't have a lot of 21 players, but they are the best team in the NFL defensively among 21 players. What's impressive to watch is how Baltimore distributes coverage and routes versus traditional under-center play-action route concepts. Against Miami, they successfully handled the three-level flood concept with quarter, quarter, and half. Sure, it helps to have a LB like Roquan Smith to plug the hole in the middle of the field, but they defended this well. The playside safety knocks down the over route, and the backside safety backs up to the middle of the field to protect from the corner post like the one Houston scored on. Up front, you can't leave Baltimore's edge defenders unblocked. They can ruin your play before you even get into it.
From Week 1, we got some idea of how the Texans plan to attack the Ravens' defense vertically, and how the Ravens will counterattack. Here, they sent a blitz to derail the timing of this potential playoff play action, forcing Stroud into an incompletion very close to the pick. Also, when you have a linebacker with range, you can see how they can take things like this dig over the middle of the field.
If the Texans are to pull off an upset, Slowicz and Stroud are one of their favorite talent groups, and they need to bring more tools out of their toolbox. It will be difficult to fool a defense as healthy as Baltimore's, but the chess match between Slowik and Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald is a must-see.
