- Wednesday’s move was thin, with EU/USD showing little momentum.
- Economic indicators in Europe continue to weaken.
- An important announcement this week will be Germany’s HICP inflation rate on Friday.
EUR/USD rose slightly on Wednesday before turning lower in the US market late, before recovering slightly to the mid-range for the day. The pair touched a small intraday high at 1.0784 before returning to familiar territory around 1.0750.
European economic data continued to be weak, with several mid-week reports saying they were weaker than expected. Interest rate cut seekers will be looking for a clue as to how close the ECB is to giving the market a rate cut after euro zone interest rates reached their current high last September. ) I’m sure you’re paying attention to the latest economic news.
Daily Digest Market Movement: EUR/USD falls below 1.0800 in tight trading on Wednesday
- Germany’s December industrial production fell more than expected, falling -1.6% compared to the expected -0.4%. -0.7% in November has been revised upward to -0.2%.
- The ECB’s latest economic report is due to be released on Thursday at 09:00 GMT.
- ECB’s Elderson and Lane are also scheduled to speak on Thursday.
- Germany’s annualized consumer price index (HICP) inflation rate, released on Friday, will be a key indicator for the euro (EUR) this week.
- Germany’s HICP inflation rate is expected to hold steady at 3.1% for the year to January.
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neil Kashkari reaffirmed the Fed’s assessment of rate cuts in 2024, saying he expects the Fed to cut interest rates only two or three times by the end of the year.
- The Fed’s Kashkari reiterated the need for the Fed to be patient and take time to evaluate the data before cutting rates.
- Fed Director Adriana D. Kugler said Wednesday that inflation is on track with the Fed’s goals, but there is more work to be done.
- Fed’s Kugler: We remain optimistic about inflation and think rate cuts are possible as long as price increases continue to decline.
- The Fed’s Kugler warned that continued high consumption poses a threat to further disinflation, as the contribution of spending to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter remains high.
today’s euro price
The table below shows the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against the major listed currencies today. The euro was the strongest against the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | australian dollar | JPY | new zealand dollar | Swiss franc | |
| USD | -0.15% | -0.14% | -0.18% | 0.17% | 0.25% | -0.14% | 0.53% | |
| EUR | 0.12% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.31% | 0.38% | 0.01% | 0.66% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | 0.01% | -0.03% | 0.32% | 0.39% | 0.01% | 0.68% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.35% | 0.42% | 0.04% | 0.68% | |
| australian dollar | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.33% | -0.35% | 0.07% | -0.32% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | -0.25% | -0.38% | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.06% | -0.39% | 0.26% | |
| new zealand dollar | 0.15% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.31% | 0.36% | 0.66% | |
| Swiss franc | -0.54% | -0.68% | -0.68% | -0.71% | -0.33% | -0.28% | -0.67% |
The heat map shows the percentage change between major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you select Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box represents EUR (base)/JPY (estimate).
Technical analysis: EUR/USD remains pinned below 1.0800
EUR/USD continues to trade south of the 1.0800 handle midweek, with the pair capped below the 200 hourly simple moving average (SMA) after being rejected from the 1.0900 area last week.
EUR/USD continues to trade on the downside of the congestion zone between the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA around 1.0900 and 1.0850, respectively, but downside momentum remains limited. If sellers are unable to push EUR/USD back around the December low bid of 1.0725, EUR/USD risks a pullback to consolidation above 1.0800.
EUR/USD hourly chart
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro Frequently Asked Questions
The euro is the currency of the 20 European Union countries that belong to the euro area. It is the second most traded currency in the world after the US dollar. In 2022, Accounted for It accounts for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions and has an average daily trading volume of over $2.2 trillion.
EUR/USD is the most frequently traded currency pair in the world. accounting An estimated 30% discount on all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB), located in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank of the euro area. The ECB sets interest rates and controls monetary policy.
The ECB’s main task is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. The main means is to raise or lower interest rates. Relatively high interest rates, or expectations of rising interest rates, usually benefit the euro, and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council decides monetary policy at its eight annual meetings. Decisions will be made by the heads of the euro zone national banks and the six permanent members of the ECB, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric indicator for the euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially above the ECB’s 2% target, the ECB will mandate interest rate hikes to rein in inflation.
Relatively high interest rates compared to other countries typically benefit the euro, as it makes the region more attractive to global investors as a place to park their funds.
The data release will gauge the health of the economy and could have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only would that attract more foreign investment, but it could also prompt the ECB to raise interest rates, which could directly lead to a stronger euro. Otherwise, if economic indicators are weak, the euro is likely to weaken.
Economic data for the euro area’s four largest economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) is particularly important, as they account for 75% of the euro area economy.
Another important data regarding the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from exports and what it spends on imports over a given period of time.
If a country produces highly sought-after export goods, the value of its currency increases purely due to the additional demand generated from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, if the net trade balance is positive, the currency strengthens, and vice versa if it is negative.
