As of now, the EUR/USD has settled at 1.1715, marking a retreat from its peak above 1.1800 earlier this week. The U.S. dollar has gained a bit of strength, especially following the release of the delayed jobs data, while European indicators such as German business confidence and inflation figures failed to impress.
The final consumer price index (HICP) for the euro area saw a downward revision for November, which may relieve some of the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates anytime soon. Additionally, data from Germany’s Ifo Institute indicates that business morale has deteriorated for the second month consecutively.
In the U.S., the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that job creation exceeded expectations in November, bouncing back from a drop in October. On the flip side, the unemployment rate rose to a four-year peak last month, and wage growth showed signs of slowing down.
It’s important to approach these figures with a pinch of skepticism, as the U.S. government shutdown could have influenced the outcomes. Nonetheless, the overall view suggests a sluggish labor market, and investor expectations for a March rate cut from the Fed seem to hold steady.
Today’s Euro Price
The following table outlines how the Euro (EUR) has changed against major currencies today, with it performing strongest against the British pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.59% | 0.39% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.28% | 0.07% | -0.13% | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.59% | -0.28% | -0.21% | -0.42% | -0.32% | -0.31% | -0.27% | |
| JPY | -0.39% | -0.07% | 0.21% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.13% | 0.42% | 0.22% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | 0.07% | 0.32% | 0.12% | -0.10% | 0.03% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.09% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.02% | |
| CHF | -0.32% | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.07% | -0.15% | -0.05% | -0.02% |
This heat map represents how major currencies have shifted in relation to one another.
Daily Digest: Market Movements
- The euro has taken a dip as traders wait for the ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday, where no changes in interest rates are anticipated. There’s a keen interest in signals that the cycle of monetary easing could be concluding.
- In a recent update, Eurostat adjusted the euro area’s HICP growth prediction for November down to 2.1% year-on-year, revising it from 2.2%. The core rate remains steady at 2.4%.
- Reports from Germany’s Ifo Institute indicated a decline in business confidence again in December. The composite index dropped to 87.6, diverging from the optimistic forecast of improvement to 88.2. The current economic sentiment index stayed the same, while expectations have also dipped.
- In the U.S., the delayed jobs data showed a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October, but a net increase of 64,000 in November, outpacing expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.6% from 4.4% and wage growth decelerated.
- Data from the Commerce Department revealed stagnant retail sales in October, failing to meet expectations despite a slight increase the month prior.
- Preliminary business activity figures for the euro area were quite disappointing, with the manufacturing PMI for December dropping below the neutral mark.
- Looking ahead, the euro zone’s HICP figures are set to affirm preliminary calculations indicating a 0.3% contraction in inflation for November.
- In the U.S., upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials may provide insight into future monetary policy directions.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Sees Bearish Focus at 1.1685
The EUR/USD has faced rejection at the 1.1800 mark and is currently experiencing a bearish correction, with focus shifting to the 1.1685 level, where significant support is situated.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also declined sharply, reflecting increasing negative momentum.
If the pair falls below 1.1685, it could clear the way towards further declines, though this level is crucial for maintaining the larger bullish trend.
A recovery would need to push back above the broken support near 1.1720, with aspirations to revisit the highs around 1.1800.
