The recent discovery of substantial rare earth elements in central Kazakhstan caught many by surprise, stirring reactions in global markets and policy circles. This find positions Kazakhstan as a significant player in the rare earth sector, especially as the U.S. is on the hunt for alternatives to its reliance on China for these essential materials, which are crucial in tech like smartphones and electric vehicles. It also casts a new light on the region’s potential, previously neglected by Washington even though it sits among various post-Soviet Turkish states.
The Turkish countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan—aren’t exactly household names in the U.S., but their importance as sources of energy and strategic minerals has not gone unnoticed by officials. Still, for reasons that are a bit convoluted, the U.S. hasn’t built solid alliances here. Notably, while Chinese and Russian leaders have actively engaged with Central Asian nations, the same cannot be said for any U.S. president in recent history—Turkey being the only exception.
Currently, the U.S. finds itself lagging behind. Nations like Russia, China, and the European Union have expanded their influence in this vital region. Historically, Russia has held considerable sway, especially regarding Uzbekistan’s gas industry and partnerships with Kazakhstan for energy production and nuclear technology. Meanwhile, China’s trade with Central Asia has surged by 27% in the last year alone, as they foster strategic partnerships with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. The EU is also getting in on the action, notably by pledging $12 billion for investments in the region during a summit in Uzbekistan.
The geopolitical landscape is evolving, and these countries—Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan—collectively hold around 6.5% of global gas reserves. Turkmenistan ranks sixth globally for gas production, while Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are significant oil producers. Recently, Kazakhstan has exceeded its OPEC Plus production targets significantly.
However, what’s capturing attention now is the vast supply of rare earth elements. Besides Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan has notable reserves and is investing heavily—around $2.6 billion—to boost its mineral extraction capabilities. Both nations also possess essential strategic minerals like gold, uranium, and lithium, which have military and economic significance.
Given these abundant resources, it’s crucial for Washington to invest in the mining and refining of rare earth elements. Currently, these countries lack the capacity to process significant strategic minerals and often rely on China and Russia for that. Congress should consider measures that could facilitate investments, perhaps by establishing permanent trade relations in the Turkish region.
The region’s role isn’t just about resources; it also serves as a crucial supply route. Historic trade routes like the Silk Road facilitated connections between diverse regions, and now Central Asia might reclaim that function as a conduit between east and west. The Central corridor, in particular, offers transport routes that bypass both Russia and Iran, which has caught U.S. attention in the past. Last year, there were efforts to develop these routes further.
This presents a clear opportunity for the U.S. If Washington invests in this corridor, it could reduce Kazakhstan’s reliance on Russia and open up energy exports through Azerbaijan. Establishing a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be a critical step towards expanding these corridors and providing alternatives to navigating through Georgia.
Many leaders in the Turkish world have expressed the desire to reduce their dependence on external powers through cooperative efforts. The collective population of these nations is about 175 million, with a GDP around $1.9 trillion, which is significant, especially when compared to Russia’s. Currently, there’s a focus on deepening cooperation through various organizations connecting Turkish states.
If these nations enhance their collaboration, they might better shape their future. Previously, Turkey was expected to spearhead a unified Turkish bloc, but recent policies have complicated that dynamic, causing some regional leaders to become wary. This situation has led to a leadership vacuum that may not last long.
In the wake of the 2020 Karabakh War, Azerbaijan, alongside Kazakhstan, is emerging as a crucial leader within the Turkish sphere. Both countries hold substantial energy and mineral reserves and are key to vital trade routes. Azerbaijan finds itself strategically situated between Iran and Russia while Kazakhstan serves as a favorable route for Chinese goods heading to Europe.
The U.S. ought to take the Turkish world more seriously—not just in rhetoric but through direct presidential engagement, consistent investments, and a revamped strategy reminiscent of the Silk Road.
