Arguably no team has been more disappointing at Euro 2024 compared to pre-tournament expectations than England.
Sure, England topped their group, but they did so with a lackluster performance, scoring just two goals and posting an expected goals figure of 2.2 xG.
For reference, Georgia’s Georges Michautadze scored three times and generated 2.3 xG alone.
And despite all this, England are the favourites to win the tournament at +330.
It may seem counterintuitive that a previously underwhelming team is now the favourite to win, but it all lies in England’s destiny.
They will face Slovakia in the round of 16 and, if they win, will face the winner of the match between Switzerland and Italy in the quarter-finals.
From there, one of the teams to advance to the semi-finals will be the Netherlands, Romania, Austria or Turkey.
Failure to reach the final would be a disaster for the Three Lions.
But there are plenty of signs that Slovakia may prove a tougher hurdle to overcome than expected.
Slovakia were lucky to beat Belgium in their opening match, but their defensive numbers were decent throughout the group stage.
The Slovak Falcons allowed just three goals (two from open play) against an expected goals of 4.4.
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In this fixture, Slovakia are expected to rely on a solid defensive structure and a “bend but don’t give up” mentality to make it difficult for an increasingly frustrating England attack.
Slovakia’s conservative approach will likely make Sunday’s game a closely fought one, with a draw likely to be worth more.
play: England vs. Slovakia, draw after 90 minutes (+330, DraftKings).
