TThe televised debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was watched intently by European diplomats and politicians as well as American voters, eager to know who would be next in the White House and, more importantly, what direction a key ally would take next.
One diplomat said diplomats sympathized with Harris as she listened to Trump's conspiracy theories, adopting expressions ranging from sympathy to bewilderment to genuine curiosity about what crazy thing would come out of her mouth next. But they also said they still shouldn't underestimate Trump and his influence on parts of a divided America, adding: “You should never underestimate him.”
Another European observer judged Harris to be the winner of the debate: “Objectively, she won on every count. She bared her teeth and [Joe] “Biden has shown he is a leader, and that's what Americans like,” they said.
In Germany, Michael Roth, the Social Democrat chairman of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee, said Harris had succeeded in making Trump look like “an elderly, angry and confused incumbent president” despite having spent most of the past four years in power. “Harris has publicly disparaged Trump and positioned herself as the candidate of change. She deliberately provoked Trump and he fell into the trap,” Roth said.
But above all, the 90-minute debate highlighted how a Trump victory would threaten fundamental pillars of European security.
Diplomats were most surprised when Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to topple President Vladimir Putin. During the debate, Trump said he only wanted to stop the war and save lives, and that he could achieve that through direct negotiations with both sides in the coming days.
Trump's praise of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as “tough, smart and respected” also highlighted the Republican candidate's close alignment with Europe's rising right-wing populists, rather than mainstream leaders who have been politically weakened by the former U.S. president's anti-immigrant rhetoric.
“Ironically, I don't think this alliance helps either Orban or Trump,” one diplomat said. “It just shows how isolated Trump is. No one in the U.S. knows who this Hungarian politician is.”
The claims about what Trump did to jumpstart European spending in Ukraine were common, even if statistically incorrect.
Trump's assertion that Israel would be destroyed within two years if Harris were elected only underscored the potential diplomatic blow to an already explosive region. Without explaining, Trump said Harris hates Israelis and Arabs and claimed, “This whole place is going to be blown up.”
Harris said too many Palestinians have died in Gaza and a two-state solution is necessary, an idea Trump recently backed away from.
Trump's reference to threatening Taliban leader Abdul Afghanistan (presumably referring to Afghanistan's First Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar) by sending him photos of his home also exposed his diplomatic tactics.
On Iran, Trump confounded diplomats by accusing Biden of allowing Iran's oil industry to escape sanctions after Biden said just days earlier that Iran poses no threat to American democracy.
Trump's contradictory stance appears to stem from his desire to appear a tough leader in a world on the brink of chaos and his knowledge that many Americans believe U.S. foreign policy involves too many costly and counterproductive wars. Polls conducted by the libertarian Cato Institute think tank, for example, suggest that voters in battleground states support Trump's pledge to end U.S. involvement overseas.
Ahead of Tuesday night's debate, European diplomats acknowledged they were nervous, hoping that Harris could perform well in the televised head-to-head match and regain some of the momentum she gained over the summer.
One diplomat admitted that the first numbers he consults every morning are the U.S. poll numbers, adding that the conflicting poll results make breakfast difficult to digest.
They noted that if Europe was concerned about Biden's poor performance in the June debate and his subsequent drop in poll numbers, it at least had the excuse that American voters were reacting logically to the president's declining performance.
The fact that Trump is back on top in some opinion polls, two months after Biden left office and with 55 days to go until the US election, shows the US has returned to the “angry type”, the diplomat added.
For many European diplomats, it was indicative that in the United States today, faced with a choice between a misogynistic, incoherent and divisive Republican candidate or a sane and credible Democratic candidate, voters remain unsure who should lead them.
While her preference for Trump over the older Biden is understandable, the recent stall in Harris' campaign points to deeper forces at work, diplomats said: It suggests the U.S. wants change and that Harris, as vice president, has not yet done or said enough to convince voters that she will bring about change. “The significance of her break with Biden in the debate cannot be underestimated,” one diplomat said.
European countries have never tolerated U.S. protectionism, but friction has risen to new levels as President Trump has increasingly turned to tariffs and other measures as a solution to almost every problem.
Trump has proposed imposing flat tariffs of 10-20% on almost all imports and 60% or more on Chinese goods, as well as imposing tariffs equal to those other countries impose on American goods, and in his latest statements he has said he would impose tariffs on countries that try to avoid trading in dollars.
The package shows how the pursuit of European competitiveness, outlined in a report this week by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, is pitting Brussels against the U.S. One diplomat said no one knew whether Harris was ready to love-bomb Europe in the way Biden did.
The foreign policy portion of Tuesday's face-off seemed especially fraught with domestic debate. Harris warned that Trump was a scapegoat for dictators, but added that a defeat in Ukraine would force Putin to turn his attention to Poland. In one of many striking remarks, Harris asked, “Tell the 800,000 Polish-Americans in Pennsylvania how quickly you would give up Poland?” [Poland] Are you going to stand up for what you consider to be a friendship with a dictator who would eat you for dinner?”
