Most read: The US dollar falls, and the Fed’s resolve is called into question. USD/JPY, USD/CAD settings before NFP
Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to be a calm one, with markets widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. For this reason, investors should closely monitor President Lagarde’s press conferences. Her remarks could provide valuable insight into the outlook for monetary policy.
Ms. Lagarde is likely to take a neutral stance, refraining from sending signals that would inadvertently set unrealistic expectations in either direction. Disappointing growth data over the past few months may argue for a more dovish position, but policymakers may become cautious in the face of stalled progress in curbing inflation.
For context, the Eurozone’s January CPI was better than expected and consumer prices are still on a sustained downward trend as rapid wage increases keep service sector inflation higher than expected. It strengthens the argument that there is no such thing. Against this backdrop, the ECB will avoid committing to pre-set policies that could raise premature market expectations, stressing that its decisions will rely on data.
Regarding potential scenarios for the euro, any hint that ECB easing is not imminent and could be postponed to later this year could trigger a hawkish reassessment of interest rate expectations. be. This would be bullish for the common currency. Conversely, any hint that an early interest rate cut is possible could trigger the opposite reaction and weigh on the euro.
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EUR/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD rebounded on Wednesday, breaking above the 50-day simple moving average and regaining the 1.0900 handle. If this bullish movement holds over the next few days, buyers may feel confident to launch an attack on 1.0950 and then focus on 1.1020.
Conversely, if the pair loses momentum and retreats below the 1.0900 mark, attention could shift to the confluence support at 1.0850. The bull must defend this floor vigorously. Otherwise, a pullback towards 1.0790 could occur. If it falls further, all eyes will be on 1.0725.
EUR/USD price action chart
EUR/USD chart created using TradingView
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change |
long |
shorts |
OI |
| every day | -12% | 19% | -3% |
| weekly | -Ten% | -3% | -8% |
EUR/GBP Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP has been on a downtrend since November, but the downward momentum is slowing and the price is moving higher towards resistance near 0.8575. Bulls will need to convincingly break through this barrier to boost sentiment towards the euro. If this is achieved, a rally towards 0.8610 and then 0.8640 could occur.
Conversely, if EUR/GBP rejects at current levels and begins to reverse, the support threshold will be at 0.8530 and thereafter at 0.8500. Prices are expected to stabilize around this area on the downside until a possible reversal, but a breakdown could lead to a drop towards 0.8450.
EUR/GBP price action chart
Creating EUR/GBP characters using TradingView
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EUR/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY has stalled in recent days after failing to break through the trendline resistance at 163.50 earlier in the week. If losses accelerate in the coming trading sessions, confluence support will emerge around 161.50. If this technical floor fails, attention will be on the 160.40-160.00 range, followed by 159.00.
Alternatively, if buyers regain control and cause a meaningful rebound, a major resistance level could be identified at 163.50, as mentioned above. It is too early to tell whether the bulls will muster the strength to break through this barrier, but if they do, a move toward last year’s peak around 164.30 may be possible.
