New Jersey’s Shift in Political Landscape
Recent data indicates that every county in New Jersey leaned more to the left during the 2025 gubernatorial election compared to the previous one in 2021.
Democrat Mikie Sherrill emerged victorious in her bid to lead the state, defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who also ran in 2021. This election was eagerly awaited, particularly in light of the 2024 federal election. Although New Jersey—often viewed as a deep blue state—seemed to be inching right with some voters rallying around President Donald Trump, it didn’t swing completely red. Trump’s performance saw him flip five counties, reducing his overall loss in New Jersey from 16 points in 2020 to just 6 points in 2024.
This gave the Republican Party a glimmer of hope that Ciattarelli might gain support. However, post-election analysis suggests that the broader electorate has shifted further to the left in 2025.
Trump’s Mixed Impact on New Jersey Voters
During the 2021 gubernatorial election, incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy faced off against Ciattarelli, garnering 51.2% of the votes to Ciattarelli’s 48%. Fast forward to 2025, Sherrill received 56.5% of the total votes cast, amounting to 3,256,410, while Ciattarelli secured 42.8%.
Fox News Digital examined New Jersey counties that experienced the most significant shifts, including traditionally conservative areas. Take Monmouth County, for instance, which typically leans Republican. There, Ciattarelli won 58.8% in 2021 but saw that drop to 54% in 2025, indicating a leftward trend according to Associated Press data. Additionally, Ocean County shifted to the left by 1.4 percentage points in 2025.
Examining the Broader Trends
New Jersey includes 21 counties, featuring a mix of urban centers, affluent neighborhoods, and expansive farmlands. Each one exhibited a leftward shift. Interestingly, Sussex County, the state’s northernmost county and historically conservative, experienced a remarkable 16.2-point swing left, with Ciattarelli dropping from 66.8% in 2021 to 59.2% in 2025.
Meanwhile, in Cumberland County in South Jersey, Democratic support surged by a 16.2-point margin compared to 2021. Back then, 55.6% backed the Republican ticket, but this dropped to 47.6% in 2025, allowing Sherrill to claim victory in this coastal area.
Final Showdown: Candidates Clash in Key Debate
Interestingly, if you compare the 2025 gubernatorial elections to the 2024 federal elections, the Democratic Party reclaimed five counties. President Trump had previously flipped these counties—Gloucester, Cumberland, Atlantic, Morris, and Passaic—but they turned blue again in 2025, voting in favor of Sherrill.
The New Jersey election cycle was one of the few noteworthy races in an off-year, alongside the Democratic win in Virginia and the election of socialist candidate Zoran Mamdani as the mayor of New York. This 2025 race is commonly viewed as a signal of what might happen in the midterm elections of 2026, where the party holding the presidency often sees losses in Congress.
