Expert Trader Raises Bitcoin Crash Probability
Tony Severino, a trader known for predicting Bitcoin’s all-time high, has increased the odds of a significant drop to $4,000. This comes as Bitcoin struggles to overcome important resistance levels, suggesting a possible serious decline.
Traders Speculate on Bitcoin’s Future
In a recent post on X, Severino expressed doubts about the next Bitcoin bull market, hinting it might peak and then dip. His accompanying chart suggests the formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern, a potential signal for a crash to $4,000. He advised market participants to focus on ranges and cycles.
When questioned about where Bitcoin could bottom out in this bear market, Severino noted that determining a bottom is speculative and can vary over time. However, he indicated that Bitcoin has bottomed on shorter time frames, though the longer-term view might still need time to find a solid low.
Recently, Severino projected that Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown this cycle could reach around 72%, hinting at a bottom near $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared similar sentiments, suggesting Bitcoin might drop to $40,000 before stabilizing. The ongoing struggles of Bitcoin imply that even after a recent recovery to $70,000, more declines could be on the horizon.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode highlighted on X that profit-taking has been active at the $70,000 mark. They mentioned that this behavior aligns with a less liquid market, meaning even a minor sell-off could hinder any recovery attempts.
Potential for a Further Dip to $30,000
Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Wu noted that Bitcoin has only existed alongside the long-term global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. He cautioned that if a global market downturn occurs, $30,000 might serve as an alternative support level for Bitcoin. Analysts also pointed out that $16,000 is crucial to maintaining BTC’s bullish trend.
Still, Willy Wu believes that $45,000 typically represents the bear market bottom for Bitcoin. He observed that the current bearish selling seems to be running its course, and prices might flatline for about a month before bouncing back to the mid-$70,000 range—though this rebound could be short-lived.
He explained this is due to reduced liquidity in both spot and futures markets, which creates a bearish atmosphere. Wu forecasted that the fourth quarter could mark the end of the bearish trend, while the first or second quarter of 2027 may be when bullish momentum returns.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,800, reflecting a decline over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
