Ann Selzer, the famous Iowa pollster, spent decades building her credibility, but as the saying goes, she lost it all in an instant.
For those of you who are lucky enough to not know, and not knowing means not spending your life in politics, Mr. Selzer has been hailed as polling gold for years. Not just among Iowa pollsters, but among all pollsters. she des moines register Voting is treated as sacred. So…
One can only imagine the reaction of Democrats and the Selzer-adoring corporate media when her poll predicted that Donald Trump would lose Iowa to Kamala Never Work At Even if I had seen it, it's still hard to imagine that happening). -McDonald's Harris leads by 3 points.
Selzer surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31. discovered Kamala beat Trump by 47% to 44%.
To the surprise of anyone with half a brain, Trump ended up winning Iowa by 13 points, 56-43 percent.
Her polls were off by 16 points. The margin of error was 3.4 points, resulting in a worst-case total of 6.8 points, resulting in a final difference of 16 points.
Seltzer almost matched the worst polling record I can remember. washington post 2020 Wisconsin poll projects Joe Biden to lead the state 17 points. The result was 16.3 points less than the 17 points.
Trump won Iowa by 8.2 points in 2020 and by 9.5 points in 2016. But the polls now show that the Donald faces a humiliating upset defeat in a state where the candidate has not campaigned or advertised.
Let's go back in context a little bit. This year we are buried in polls. burial Among them. There were good polls and bad polls, but no poll showed President Trump facing an upset in reliably red states (like Iowa). Furthermore, in 2024, Trump polled better than ever before, narrowly leading in five to seven of the seven battleground states, and the Harris campaign never went to Iowa.
And she still published this poll.
why?
It's not at all uncommon for pollsters to get counterintuitive results and go back and recheck their work. Please redo 200 more surveys.
But nevertheless, read very authoritative books. write of public opinion polls. Zero humility. This is best heard in Inspector Clouzot's voice.
What the organized left, including the corporate media, did with this poll was truly significant. It quickly became another fabricated October surprise, along with the Puerto Rican joke and the Trump-wanted-Liz-Cheney-execution hoax. That's it. Despite hundreds of polls saying one thing, the hand of God has delivered from Mount Seltzer the truth engraved on a stone tablet: we have finally defeated the Orange Bad Man.
I was never angry or worried about this poll. Because, like my outrage over Puerto Rican jokes and Liz Cheney hoaxes, I knew this was obvious, hopeless latecomer nonsense. And to be honest, it was amazing to see all the hopes the polls gave people who were terrible ultimately dashed.
But now I come to my favorite part…
Selzer is now suggesting that the poll was correct on the day it was released, rather than taking ownership of the poll's failure, but it is what it is. important and influential Polls helped Trump.
“I have told multiple news outlets that the findings from this last poll may actually energize and energize Republican voters who probably thought they would win by inertia,” she said. spoke. explained in des moines register Thursday. “Maybe that's what happened.”
And this tells you why she blew her confidence all at once. That's arrogance.
I've been taking positions online for 20 years and I'm always wrong. Even if you are wrong, your credibility will not be lost. What is fatal is not admitting that you were wrong. We can all make mistakes. But Selzer beat the polls by 16 points, throwing it like a grenade into the final days of a closely contested election. And now she's everything. My strong reputation and votes changed the world!
God bless Donald Trump for forcing these people to reveal who they really are.
John Nolte's first and last novel. borrowed time, winning five star rave From daily readers. You can read an excerpt here and a detailed review here. Also available in hard cover And even more Kindle and audio book.
