City Population Trends: A Closer Look
Recent data from the Census Bureau shows a rebound in urban populations, suggesting good news for major cities. The numbers indicate an overall growth between 2023 and 2024 across cities of various sizes. “Cities of all sizes grew on average,” says the bureau, noting that this trend is evident in all regions.
A striking 94% of cities reported population growth, which is quite impressive. However, delving deeper reveals a contrasting narrative in some large cities governed by Democratic mayors like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia. These cities are actually experiencing declines compared to their 2020 populations. For example, New York City has dropped from 8.5 million to about 8.478 million, a decrease of 3.7%. Similarly, Philadelphia’s population fell by 1.9%, while Chicago and Los Angeles saw decreases of 1% and 0.5% respectively.
These trends can partly be traced back to factors that influence the cities’ livability and affordability—like the effectiveness of local government. In New York City, housing costs are notably higher, at 21.8% above the national average. This persists despite adjustments in prices and the presence of public housing. The limited turnover of rent-stabilized apartments pushes prices up for remaining market-rate homes, creating a game of musical chairs for residents. In stark contrast, Houston’s population is growing by 3.9%, with housing costs being 21% lower than the national average.
Chicago’s situation is also telling, particularly its crime rates. The city recorded 653 murders last year, the highest in the country, nearly doubling Baltimore’s numbers. Gang violence has spread even to more affluent areas, creating a troubling landscape. Residents are facing rising property taxes, with a reported increase of $2.7 billion (53.3%) between 2014 and 2024, despite a 35% inflation rate. In the realm of education, only 30.5% of students in grades 3 to 8 met proficiency standards in reading, with just 18.3% in math.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles grapples with a significant homeless issue, particularly evident in areas like Skid Row. The city houses around 71,000 homeless individuals, which equates to 670 per 100,000 residents, with a staggering 70% classified as “unsheltered”—higher than most other major cities.
Similar stories play out across other cities like Philadelphia, where homelessness remains a pressing concern, and a notable percentage is unsheltered. Even San Jose has seen troubling trends related to its homeless population.
While it could be argued that factors like mild weather are attracting people to areas like the Sun Belt, the current census data raises questions about the recovery of prior population levels in California and parts of the Northeast. Governance appears to be a key factor; issues like crime, homelessness, high taxes, and failing public schools aren’t exactly welcoming signs for former and potential residents. Interestingly, the cities facing the largest population declines are predominantly led by Democratic mayors, which seems to correlate with a decline in public support for their leadership.
Ultimately, cities should ideally be hubs of innovation and economic growth. However, when local governments fail to provide adequate essential services, it’s no wonder that census reports from these places are less than favorable.
