Fantasy baseball owners should be wary of overhyped outfielders

March Madness is always full of surprises, like Farley Dickinson defeating Purdue to become the second No. 16 seed to oust the No. 1 seed.

Or, for the third year in a row, Princeton defeated No. 2 Arizona and the 15th seed won the first round.

It’s really insane!

But March Madness didn’t just relegate to college basketball. Fantasy baseball drafts are full of madness.

The frenzy starts with Michael Harris. Michael Harris, with the Braves he appeared in 114 games, had 64 RBIs, 75 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, . was named his league rookie of the year.

With a stat line like that, it should get you excited, right?

Hmm, maybe I got a little too excited.

Harris may not live up to the hype it achieved in rookie year.
AP Photo/Nick Wass, File

According to Fantasy Alarm, Harris’ average draft position is 37.87, but some sites have ADPs of 24.8 (Underdog Fantasy) or 26.1 (RealTime Fantasy). He’s Yahoo and he’s 33.3 years old.

In some cases, that means Harris will be drafted as a top 10 outfielder or among the top 25 overall.

That’s a lot for a player who has played just 114 games. There’s no need to argue about the tools he brings to the table (and he actually brings his entire bag of tools), but while Roto Rage believes Harris is very good, the final For that lofty draft there are concerns that he can’t live up to the status.

Among players with 400 or more plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7% chase percentage (swings on pitches outside the strike zone) was the 12th worst in the majors. This contributed to his 4.8% walk rate, his 18th lowest in the league, and his 24.3% strikeout rate (his 23rd worst mark in the NL).

Harris hit .297, but his over-high BABIP of .361 shows that luck was on his side. His actual average and his insane 56.2 grounder percentage were the fourth highest in the majors.

Oh, and his expected slugging percentage (.460) was more than 50 points lower than his actual slugging percentage of .514. These numbers scream one thing: regression.

How about Harris’ struggle against left-handed pitchers?

In 135 at-bats against left-handers last season, he batted .

Seattle Mariners' Teoscar Hernandez #35 reacts after an RBI double by Mike Ford #20 in the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres during a spring training game at Peoria Stadium in Peoria, Arizona on February 24, 2023. bottom.
Hernandez joining the Mariners could mean a reduction in his hitting.
Steph Chambers/Getty Images

He also had a .337 BABIP against southpaws. that’s a problem.

Harris’ problem isn’t his strengths or talents, but his current price tag. Too expensive. To be drafted as a top 25 player and earn a good return, he will need to replicate his success in 2022, and that’s no easy task.

There are too many red flags to pay a premium price to an inexperienced player whose numbers are headed backwards.

Roto Rage will target more accomplished outfielders like Kyle Schwarber (39.69), Randy Arrozarena (47.84) and Cedric Mullins (51.64).

Other outfielders to watch out for are:

Teoscar Hernandez (76.31) goes from hitter-friendly Toronto to pitcher’s heaven Seattle.

That’s not something fantasy managers should consider good luck.

Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds’ (77.31) is a really good player in bad situations. He doesn’t have enough support in the Pirates lineup to give fantasy owners the numbers he can.

Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves was greeted in the dugout after running a run during the sixth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Minnesota Twins in Northport, Florida, Saturday, March 4, 2023.
Acuna Jr. ranks among the top fantasy baseball outfielders.
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

He’ll be a good player, but unlikely to be a truly great player…unless he ends up being traded.

Mets’ Sterling Marte (92.29), who had surgery in the offseason and has missed more than 30 games in all but one season since 2016, has slowed his sprint speed and suffered frequent injuries. I am 34 years old. Do the math.

Washington’s Joey Meneses (182.71) has vibes like Frank Schwindell (Cubs’ 2021).

He has a strong swing, but his small sample size and BABIP of .371 raise questions.

Cleveland’s Oscar Gonzalez (188.23) batted .296 with 11 homers, 43 RBIs, 39 runs scored and a .789 OPS in 91 games.

It was a solid debut, but his 3.4% walking rate is in the bottom 1% of the league (similar to his 48.3% tracking rate) and his .345 BABIP is a good indication that regression is near. It’s a sign.


  1. Ronald Acuna Jr.=Atl
  2. Aaron Judge=NYY
  3. Julio Rodriguez = sea
  4. Juan Soto=SD
  5. Kyle Tucker-Hou
  6. Mookie Betts=LAD
  7. Mike Trout = LAA
  8. Jordan Alvarez-Hou
  9. Fernando Tatis Jr.=SD
  10. Luis Roberto = CWS
  11. Randy Arrozarena=TB
  12. Kyle Schwarber-Phi
  13. Cedric Mullins-Barr
  14. Adris Garcia-Tex
  15. Eloy Jimenez = CWS
  16. Dalton Versho-Thor
  17. Michael Harris II=Atl
  18. Corbyn Carroll-Ali
  19. George Springer-Thor
  20. Byron Buxton-Min
  21. Brian Reynolds-Pitt
  22. Starling Malte = NYM
  23. Stephen Kwan-Cre
  24. Tyler O’Neal=StL
  25. Teoscar Hernandez = Sea
  26. Seiya Suzuki = ChC
  27. Anthony Santander-Barr
  28. Chris Bryant-Koll
  29. Nick Castellanos-Fai
  30. Christian Yelich-Mill
  31. Giancarlo Stanton=NYY
  32. Jake McCarthy-Ali
  33. Ian Happ=ChC
  34. Taylor Ward=LAA
  35. Andrew Vaughan=CWS
  36. Brandon Nimmo = NYM
  37. Mitch Haniger = SF
  38. Hunter Renfro = LAA
  39. MJ Melendez-KC
  40. Jeff McNeill = NYM
  41. Lars Nootbaar=StL
  42. Jordan Walker=StL
  43. Alex Verdago-Boss
  44. Masataka Yoshida = Boss
  45. Cody Bellinger=ChC
  46. Oscar Gonzalez-Cre
  47. Riley Green-Det
  48. Ramon Laureano-Oak
  49. Andrew Benintendi=CWS
  50. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. = Ali
  51. Will Myers-Shin
  52. Brian De La Cruz-Mia
  53. Seth Brown-Oak
  54. Jared Kelenic = Sea
  55. Esterly Lewis-Oak
  56. Whit Merrifield=Tor
  57. Jorge Sorel-Mia
  58. Adam Duvall-Boss
  59. Austin Meadows=Det
  60. Michael Confort=SF
  61. Alex Kirillov-Ming
  62. Garrett Mitchell-Mill
  63. Jesse Winker-Mill
  64. Joc Pederson = SF
  65. Trey Mancini=ChC
  66. Brendan Donovan-StL
  67. Austin Hayes-Bull
  68. Jake Fraley-Singh
  69. Brandon Marsh-Phi
  70. Chris Taylor-LAD
  71. Charlie Blackmon-Col
  72. Avicel Garcia-Mia
  73. Max Kepler = Min
  74. Marcel Ozuna-Attle
  75. Juan Yepes=StL
  76. Lane Thomas-Woz
  77. Oscar Chorus = CWS
  78. Edward Olivarez=KC
  79. Manuel Margo=TB
  80. Harrison Bader = NYY
  81. Trent Grisham=SD
  82. Andrew McCutchen-Pitt
  83. Oswald Cabrera=NYY
  84. Bubba Thompson-Tex
  85. Kike Hernandez-Boss
  86. Randall Grichuk-Kol
  87. Michael Brantley-Hou
  88. AJ Pollock = Ocean
  89. Mike Yastrzemski = SF
  90. TJ Friedl-Singh
  91. Jose Siri = TB
  92. Matt Biering-Dart
  93. Dylan Carlson=StL
  94. Mark Cana=NYM
  95. Jose Lowe = Tuberculosis
  96. Harold Ramirez=TB
  97. Lamonte Wade Jr. = SF
  98. Alec Thomas-Ali
  99. Sal Frerick-Mill
  100. Nolan Jones-Col

team name of the week

lux lily tax

Submitted by Ralph LaNoce

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