New study finds US crime will drop significantly in 2023 FBI datahomicides decreased by 13%, and reported violent crimes and reported property crimes decreased.
Robberies and aggravated assaults are both down 5% from 2022, and overall violent crime is down 6%, according to FBI data.
However, this statistic is based on numbers collected from only 79% of U.S. law enforcement agencies. Experts had previously warned that the data could be “spotty” given inconsistent reporting by local agencies providing the figures. And the FBI is not scheduled to release official statistics and analysis on crime for 2023 until October of this year, so the new statistics have not been audited.
The numbers come as Republicans have made crime a central issue in the November presidential election.Donald Trump has repeatedly talked about murder and violent crime at former presidential campaign rallies, and Republicans claimed Crimes committed by immigrants are on the rise.
“In May 2021, the Department of Justice launched a violent crime reduction strategy aimed at addressing the surge in violent crime that occurred during the pandemic,” said Attorney General Merrick Garland. in a statement.
“Since then, our prosecutors, investigators, and grant-making experts have worked closely with police departments and communities across the country to track repeat offenders and gangs responsible for the greatest violence. We have confiscated illegal guns and deadly drugs; made significant investments to hire more law enforcement officers; and funded evidence-based community violence intervention initiatives.”
data is based on It is based on the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, which collects crime statistics from local law enforcement agencies.
However, although participation in the program is voluntary, not all crime reports will be collected. And many experts generally say that crime levels fluctuate for unclear reasons and are not necessarily meaningfully affected in the short term by government policies or interventions.
The FBI said the numbers released Tuesday were based on data collected from 15,199 of 19,152 law enforcement agencies.
Experts have previously told the Guardian that the FBI’s findings should be viewed with caution, given that the information is incomplete.
“Incomplete and patchwork data means we miss the whole picture,” Insha Rahman, deputy director of advocacy and partnerships at the Vera Institute of Justice, told the Guardian last year.
appealNews organizations that focus on the criminal legal system point out that 50% of violent crimes and 70% of property crimes are never reported to police, meaning these crimes are missed in the data.
Nevertheless, Jeff Asher, a prominent New Orleans-based crime analyst, said: NBC News In an article published Tuesday, it said the preliminary numbers were encouraging.
“This suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will probably see the largest one-year decline in homicides on record,” Asher said.
Usher also said that the ability of local governments to restart certain crime-fighting efforts that were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic may also have played a role in the reductions shown in the FBI’s preliminary data. told NBC.
Early this month, Trump made false claims Republicans sought to accuse Democrats of being soft on crime, claiming that “immigrant violence is driving the worst crime wave in history.”
in him state of the union address On March 7, Joe Biden said crime rates have fallen and that his administration has made “the largest investment in public safety in history.”
