The CEO of Mainstay Capital Management insisted the Fed is “very cautious” and won’t be cutting rates for some time.
All eyes will be on the February jobs report, released Friday morning, as investors look for clues about the health of the labor market in the face of rising interest rates and persistently high inflation.
A high-stakes February for the Department of Labor salary reportThe 8:30 a.m. ET announcement will show employment rose by 200,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, according to the median estimate of Refinitiv economists. It is expected that
That would mean a decline from the blockbuster Increased by 353,000 in January In 2023, an average increase of 255,000 per month was recorded.
“January’s pay growth was much stronger than expected, due in part to the annual revision, but we expect it to return to a more sustainable pace in February,” said Glassdoor Chief Economist Aaron Terrazas. .
The number of well-paying jobs is decreasing
Job seekers attend the Veterans Employment and Resources Fair on January 9, 2024 in Long Beach, California. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
of federal reserve The report will be closely watched for evidence that the labor market is finally softening after months of surprisingly strong job growth as policymakers seek to ensure progress in curbing inflation does not stall. There is. Officials have suggested that rapid wage growth, a product of a strong labor market, contributed to the inflationary crisis that has ravaged the wallets of millions of Americans over the past few years.
Slower job growth and further deceleration in wage growth could be welcome signs for the U.S. central bank, which has signaled plans to cut interest rates this year once inflation is firmly under control.
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Average hourly wages, a key indicator of inflation, are expected to increase by 0.3% in the month and 4.4% from the same period last year.
“February jobs data should ease concerns about economic growth and inflation accelerating again,” said Lydia Boussall, chief economist at EY. “After a strong start to the year, employment growth and wage momentum are likely to have cooled at the same time.”
The labor market has remained historically tight over the past year, contrary to economists’ predictions of an economic slowdown. Economists say the economy is starting to slow from last year’s breakneck pace, but is still far from breaking out.
| ticker | safety | last | change | change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Me: DJI | Dow Jones Average | 38774.18 | +113.13 | +0.29% |
| I:Comp | Nasdaq Composite Index | 16266.136738 | +234.59 | +1.46% |
| SP500 | S&P500 | 5153.87 | +49.11 | +0.96% |
In a separate report released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Pace of layoffs Efforts by U.S. employers accelerated in February.
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According to the company’s survey results, companies planned to cut 84,638 jobs in February, an increase of 3% from the previous month and a 9% increase from the same period last year. This is the highest total layoffs in February since 2009.
“As we head into early 2024, we are witnessing a steady wave of layoffs. Companies are aggressively cutting costs and embracing technological innovation, and staffing needs “We are significantly restructuring the company,” said Andy Challenger, Challenger’s senior vice president. Christmas.
Data shows the labor market is easing despite increasing headwinds.
