Tim Boyle, the CEO of Columbia Sportswear, discussed tariffs’ impact on products and holiday shopping during an exclusive chat on “The Craman Countdown.”
An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reveals that tariffs might have hindered job growth in the U.S. economy, particularly after the increase in import taxes.
Economists from the Kansas City Fed noted a significant decline in job growth, dropping from 170,000 monthly in 2024 to merely 75,000 per month by August 2025. This decline is closely observed by Fed policymakers and contributed to three rate cuts during meetings in September, October, and December.
The report mentions that tariffs can theoretically influence labor demand either way. The tariff hikes initiated during the Trump administration coincide with other factors affecting the workforce, such as the rise of artificial intelligence, an aging population, and reduced immigration.
According to these economists, “Overall, our findings indicate that domestic firms may be hiring less due to tariffs, at least for the time being, mirroring trends from 2018.”
Goldman Sachs predicts U.S. economy will grow faster in 2026 despite a stagnant job market.
A Kansas City Fed analysis indicates that tariffs might have suppressed job growth in the U.S. economy. (Alison Joyce/Bloomberg)
In their analysis, sectors affected by imported products saw slower employment growth compared to those less impacted by tariffs.
Economists observed that employment increases across nearly all sectors in 2025 were under the averages from 2022-2023, reflecting an initial strong post-pandemic recovery followed by a recent slowdown.
Sectors facing more tariff-related impacts experienced larger drops in job growth, which researchers linked directly to tariff effects.
Economic uncertainty from tariffs results in job losses for small businesses in November.
Tariffs are charges on imported goods that importers typically pass on to consumers, resulting in higher prices. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
The economists emphasized, “While it appears tariffs have likely curtailed employment growth, there remains significant uncertainty regarding their specific impact, and we cannot entirely exclude the chance that tariffs had no direct effect on employment.”
The analysis also estimated how many jobs could have been created without the direct effects of the tariffs. Employment limitations were noted.
Fed’s analysis reveals surprising patterns of unemployment and inflation affected by tariffs.
In April 2025, President Donald Trump announced a significant tariff increase. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The Kansas City Fed economists speculated that, had these policies not been in place, the economy might have added an average of 19,000 jobs monthly from January to August 2025, related to tariff effects. However, they also underscored the uncertainty surrounding this estimate.
This average implies that if the labor force size had remained steady, the tariffs could have potentially raised the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points.
Recent data indicates a rise in unemployment rate to 4.4%.
The initial unemployment report for November was 4.6%—the highest since September 2021—but later adjustments revised it to 4.5%.
