Ferrari’s comeback, Oliver Bearman’s return, and more F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix storylines

September 9, 2024

It's amazing how much changes in a year.

The last time the F1 grid lined up in Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the field was quite different to what it is now. The 2023 Azerbaijan Grand Prix will take place in April as the fourth round of the F1 season, and Red Bull arrived in Baku as the dominant force on the grid. The team, with Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez, had won the first three grands prix of the year and were 58 points ahead of Aston Martin in the constructors' championship – a huge lead after just three races.

McLaren, meanwhile, were bottom of the standings with just 12 points for the year, despite winning all 12 at the Australian Grand Prix the following race weekend. The Lando Norris-Oscar Piastri duo missed out on the points in the first two race weekends and, as Norris told me before last year's Azerbaijan Grand Prix, they were just fighting for the points.

Back to this season. The revised F1 calendar means the Azerbaijan Grand Prix will now take place in September, but this date change alone cannot explain the huge difference in McLaren and Red Bull's trend lines so far. Like last year, Red Bull will arrive in Baku atop the constructors' championship standings, only eight points behind McLaren. Norris and Piastri are now putting Red Bull under immense pressure, and if their recent form continues, McLaren will leave Azerbaijan in first place in the constructors' championship race.

But McLaren have not had a perfect season. With Norris chasing Verstappen in the drivers' championship (Norris currently sits 62 points behind the Red Bull driver), McLaren are trying to balance the team's goal of fighting for the title with winning the constructors' championship. Piastri's speed certainly gives him an advantage in the latter battle, but with the second-year driver proving himself as a driver this season (fourth in the drivers' championship), McLaren are facing plenty of questions in the paddock about whether to prioritize Norris in the final stages.

As for Red Bull, both teams have been sounding the alarm about their title challenge in recent weeks, but we may have to wait until the United States Grand Prix in Austin in October to really know if the RB20 has solved its current issues.

Can McLaren really rise to the top? Can Red Bull hold them off? How will McLaren handle that speed duo? These questions are dominating the headlines ahead of the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, but they're not the only major storylines to watch.

A Scuderia comeback story?

The battle between Red Bull and McLaren dominated the headlines as the teams arrived at Monza for the Italian Grand Prix. The shocking news of Norris' impressive victory over Verstappen by 22 seconds at the Dutch Grand Prix rang through the paddock, and many believed that McLaren could use that form to overtake Red Bull at Monza.

Apparently someone forgot to tell the local team.

McLaren came close, narrowing the 30-point gap to eight, but it was Charles Leclerc who took the chequered flag at the Italian Grand Prix. Despite McLaren dominating the front row in qualifying, Leclerc and teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. put together a great team, finishing first and fourth after completing more than 30 laps each on the hard tyre with just one pit stop (Leclerc 38 to be exact).

This has put Ferrari back into the conversation when it comes to the constructors' championship, while Leclerc has become a contender when it comes to the drivers' title.

Ferrari currently sits 39 points behind Red Bull and 31 behind McLaren in the constructors' championship, while Leclerc is a bit further back in the drivers' championship (86 points behind Verstappen and 24 behind Norris), but is still within striking distance.

Could Ferrari pull off a historic comeback? After Leclerc's thrilling win at the Monaco Grand Prix, the Scuderia was just 24 points behind Red Bull, but a series of upgrades to the SF-24 were ineffective on the track and Ferrari looked set to easily drop out of the race.

But Leclerc's victory at Monza has changed the debate.

Team principal Frederic Vasseur said after the Italian Grand Prix it was difficult to say Ferrari was truly back, but pointed out that anything can happen in F1 this season.

“I think it would be a big mistake to jump to conclusions or change plans. [after winning at Monza]”There's still a long way to go to Abu Dhabi with around 450 points to come,” team principal said after Leclerc's victory.

“It's a really intense battle. I've spent a few years on the pit wall and I think it's the first time we've seen a situation in F1 where eight drivers can win a race without an accident or a crash. Four teams can win or be on the podium and it's changing from session to session.”

Vasseur added that he expects “big battles” towards the end of the year.

“But we expect it to continue like this until the end of the season. It will be a tough fight and it is true that with eight cars this competitive, one team can achieve a 1-2 finish or even a 7-8 finish,” Vasseur added. “I don't want to talk about DNFs, but this could make a big difference in terms of points. Let's focus on Baku first and take it step by step.”

Monza is certainly a power track and that, combined with Ferrari's bold one-stop strategy, led to an impressive victory at the Italian Grand Prix. But some sections of the Baku street circuit also call for power, which Ferrari showed in Azerbaijan last season. Last year, Leclerc started from pole position in both the F1 sprint race and the Grand Prix, finishing on the podium in both events.

Can he deliver again and help Ferrari really break the tango between McLaren and Red Bull?

Then there were two…

Mercedes announced at the Italian Grand Prix that young prodigy Andrea Kimi Antonelli will team up with George Russell next season, confirming 18 of the 20 spots on the 2025 F1 grid.

That means just two spots remain: one for Sauber alongside Nico Hulkenberg, who was confirmed to drive for the team ahead of this year's Miami Grand Prix, and the other for Visa Cash App RB F1 Team alongside Yuki Tsunoda.

Will we find out who will fill one or both of these positions this week?

The team to watch this week will likely be VCARB, with Red Bull stalwart Dr Helmut Marko suggesting in recent weeks that Liam Lawson's future will be revealed in September, and the clock is ticking…

As for Sauber, Mattia Binotto said that current driver Valtteri Bottas and F2 driver Gabriel Bortoletto will emerged as a candidate He'll be aiming for a spot next to Hulkenberg. Tomorrow we'll feature an exclusive interview with Bottas discussing his future, so be sure to check back later this week.

Adrian Newey's announcement

This week we may finally get some long-awaited Adrian Newey news.

From the moment the legendary engineer announced his decision to leave Red Bull at the end of the 2024 F1 season, speculation has been rife around the paddock as to where Newey might head for 2025. In recent weeks, that speculation has been focused on Aston Martin, with rumours circulating that Newey will be handed a huge contract by Lawrence Stroll.

According to multiple reports, a deal between Newey and Aston Martin has been finalised. The team has not officially announced the deal. A press conference is scheduled for Tuesday. At Aston Martin's Silverstone factory.

Aston Martin is SB Nation There is no confirmation of Newey's signing, but indications are the deal will be announced this week.

Sauber's challenge for points

Sauber now has just eight race weekends left to avoid the dreaded donut.

The final team to finish an F1 season without scoring any points was Haas, with both drivers Nikita Mazepin and Mick Schumacher failing to score any points throughout the year.

At the moment, Sauber is facing a similarly brutal end to its F1 season, with the exploits of both Bottas and Zhou Guanyu meaning the team has failed to score any points this season, with Zhou's best result of 11th place in the opening race, the Bahrain Grand Prix.

Will they manage to break through in Baku, or will Azerbaijan be another stop-off point on the road to a disappointing season?

Return of super-sub Oliver Bearman

Earlier this season, reserve driver Oliver Bearman filled in for the unwell Carlos Sainz Jr at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and finished an impressive seventh on his Ferrari debut.

Bearman will be back on the grid this week, albeit in very different circumstances.

Barman will be driving the Haas VF-24 of veteran driver Kevin Magnussen, who finished the Italian Grand Prix in 10th place and had a further two-point penalty handed down to his super license for causing a collision with Pierre Gasly.

These two points brought his total points for the calendar year to 12, resulting in a one-race suspension.

“Going into a race as a reserve driver is definitely more challenging with less preparation time etc, but luckily I have experience from racing with Scuderia Ferrari earlier this year so at least I can draw on that,” said Bearman. “I've also had four FP1 sessions in the VF-24 with MoneyGram Haas F1 Team already this season so that will definitely be valuable going into the whole race weekend in Baku. The team is in good form right now and we'll do our best to be prepared with the time we're given. The goal is to get out there and have a good weekend in Azerbaijan.”

This week will be a good warm-up for Bearman, who will drive full-time for Haas alongside Esteban Ocon next season.

Castle section

Finally, this weekend's Azerbaijan Grand Prix will see the return of the “Castle Section,” a section of the track where the cars pass through Baku and run alongside its medieval city walls.

So we get to enjoy some of the most iconic images from each F1 season.