The final poll conducted by the definitive pollster ahead of Monday's Iowa caucuses showed former President Donald Trump surging ahead of the Republican pack the day before the first votes were cast. It was done.
Second place went to Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, and third place went to Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida.
An Emerson College poll found Trump at 55%, Haley at 21%, DeSantis at 15%, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at 2%. There is. The survey was conducted from February 11 to February 13 among 562 potential caucus attendees and had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
📊 Iowa Republican Caucus Final Voting
Trump: 55% (+5)
Hayley: 21% (+4)
DeSantis: 15% (=)
Ramaswami: 5% (-3)
Hutchinson: 2% (+2)[Change vs December 15]
Emerson (A-) | 562 LV | 1/11-13 | ±4.2%https://t.co/JzDxzX12hu pic.twitter.com/VUmepY59Wc
— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
This study was conducted following the vaunted final results des moines register Polls released Saturday night painted a similar picture of the race. The poll showed Trump in second place with 48%, Haley in second place with 20%, and DeSantis in third with 16%.
2024 Iowa Republican Caucus: @DMRegister
Trump: 48% (-3)
Hayley: 20% (+4)
DeSantis: 16% (-3)
Ramaswami: 8% (+3)
Hutchinson: 1% (=)
Binkley: 1% (+1)[Change vs December 7]
• @jaselzer (A+) | @NBCNews
• January 7th to 12th | 712 LV | MoE: ±3.7%https://t.co/rsPFRW24KQ pic.twitter.com/OKe6Itl7lF— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
Most Republicans and observers are predicting a victory for Trump on Monday night in the frigid state of Iowa, which has experienced some of the coldest winter weather on record in recent days. It's not expected to let up Monday, with wind chills well below freezing in some parts of the state.
The big question heading into Monday is whether Mr. Trump can succeed and not just win, but win a landslide as polls suggest. Prognosticators will be watching to see whether Trump reaches a majority and how much of a difference he will make over the second-place candidate. Additionally, it's just as important who comes in second place, and how much of a lead they have over President Trump.
If Mr. DeSantis, who had publicly predicted for months that he would win the Iowa caucuses, were to finish third, or if he actually finished in a very strong second place or lower, it would be more than a campaign for him. It would be difficult to justify continuing the election campaign. Hawkeye State. Pressure is already mounting on him to resign before a vote is taken. national reviewRich Lowry, Editor-in-Chief of write column of politiko It was published late last week under the title “Ron DeSantis will be forced to drop out unless he passes out at Iowa.”
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis attend the CNN Republican presidential debate at Drake University on January 10, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
Haley also has doubts. If she doesn't come in second place, as these latest polls show, or if she has a wide margin with Trump, many will People will start to question her future career path. to her. But Haley hasn't bet everything on Iowa and has remained focused on New Hampshire, proving she can continue her long campaign as the Granite State's Republican primary voters head to the polls. There are at least eight more days left. A week from Tuesday.
But the biggest question remains whether Mr. Trump's advantage will be reflected in caucus votes, and if so, whether it will be reflected in subsequent races such as New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan. The question remains whether this is a sign that the momentum from Super Tuesday will continue. If Trump passes out on caucus night, he could be on track to quickly end the Republican nomination, but if the remaining challengers resist, this could mean Trump It can be a longer and more drawn-out process than you would like. The numbers will determine the next direction.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference on Thursday, January 11, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altafer)
Mr. Trump's continued steadfastness is evidenced not only by polls released this weekend, but also by the primary support he has garnered, leading to his eventual general election. The party continues to steadily unite behind the candidacy. In Iowa, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a former Trump rival in the race and a candidate for the Republican nomination until dropping out late last year, endorsed Trump on Sunday in Iowa. So does Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida). He was a former rival of President Trump in the 2016 campaign and has since become one of the biggest supporters of Trump's America First policies, on everything from trade with China to family values and more.
The day before, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), one of the top conservatives in the U.S. Senate, formally endorsed Mr. Trump, but this was followed by a vote from Speaker Mike Johnson to Majority Leader Steve Scalise, This came after the entire House Republican leadership, including the Majority Whip, supported it. Tom Emmer was also in line. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik was a very early Trump supporter, endorsing Trump's re-election shortly after announcing her run in late 2022.
