Presidential primaries will be held this evening in 15 states and one U.S. territory.
President Biden faces only nominal opposition in the Democratic primary vote, and barring some surprises, he could move closer to clinching the party’s nomination tonight.
On the Republican side, 35% of the total delegate count is at stake.
Super Tuesday: Live Updates
Former President Trump enters the election campaign in a very favorable position. She has six times as many delegates as Ms. Haley, and is far ahead of Ms. Haley in recent national polls.
Haley will be hoping for an upset to make this race competitive, and even if it’s not, she could run away with some delegates thanks to various rules. expensive.
Fifteen states and one American Samoa will participate in Super Tuesday in 2024. (Paul J. Richards/AFP via Getty Images)
But regardless of the overall result, the vote counts in certain parts of the country tonight will tell us something about the 2024 Republican electorate.
1. Will counties with large college-educated populations continue to follow the Hailey trend?
So far this year, college education has been a useful indicator of Haley’s support.
Super Tuesday is expected to bring Haley’s last stand and Trump closer to winning the Republican nomination.
In New Hampshire, 56% of college-educated Republican primary voters voted for Haley, according to Fox News voter analysis. She even ran with President Trump against college-educated voters in South Carolina.
As such, these counties are noteworthy because they have the highest percentage of residents with college degrees.
- Falls Church, VA – 78.5%
- Arlington County, Virginia – 74.6%
- Pitkin County, Colorado – 63.1%
- Alexandria, Virginia – 62.1%
- Fairfax County, Virginia – 61.1%
Four of these five counties are outside Washington, DC. The other is best known as Aspen, home to a luxury ski resort.
Haley tries to score as high as possible in places like this.
President Trump hits back at Nikki Haley’s claim that he’s the better choice to beat Biden: ‘She knows it’s a lie’
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley was nearly tied with former President Donald Trump among South Carolina’s college-educated voters in the state’s 2024 primary. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc, via Getty Images)
Conversely, the counties with the fewest college graduates are:
- Loving County, Texas – 0%
- Kennedy County, Texas – 0.1%
- Hudspeth County, Texas – 0.1%
- Frio County, Texas – 0.1%
- Morgan County, Texas – 0.1%
All of these areas are likely to tilt heavily toward Mr. Trump.
All five of these Texas counties are primarily located in the southwestern part of the state and are rural counties with particularly sparse populations.
2. Will Northeast Republicans continue to buck party trends?
Several Northeastern states will vote today, including Vermont, Massachusetts and Maine.
In the Trump era, all three have moved further out of the reach of the Republican Party.
And Republican voters, especially in the urban and suburban areas of those states, should favor Ms. Haley.
These areas have a higher proportion of wealthy voters and, as noted above, a higher proportion of college-educated voters, which tends to be Haley.
Her best chance lies in Vermont. Her great night will make her competitive in other Northeastern states as well.
The former South Carolina governor held events in all three states last week.
Haley was accompanied by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a moderate, to the event in Needham, Massachusetts.
Haley asks if Trump follows the Constitution, withdraws pledge to support Republican candidate
Counties with the fewest college graduates are more likely to vote for former President Donald Trump. (Julie Bennett/Getty Images)
3. Can Haley beat Virginia?
Haley earned her first win of the primary season Sunday night in Washington, D.C.
Today, voters in neighboring Virginia will also have their say, giving Haley a chance to win even more delegates.
The closer she gets to D.C., the more likely Haley will increase her vote.
In particular, note the following:
- Fairfax County (Rubio +15)
- Loudoun County (Rubio +13)
- Prince William County (Rubio +2)
The reference to Rubio in parentheses indicates how many points the Florida senator won in each county in 2016. Ms. Haley generally still appeals to the same kind of voters she did then.
Further down the state, Haley also has opportunities in Henrico County, Chesterfield County, Albemarle County and James City.
The rest of the state has dozens of rural counties that lean heavily toward President Trump, so she will need to do everything she can in those areas.
4. Did President Trump reshape Utah?
Utah was one of President Trump’s weakest states in the 2016 primary.
His main rival in the race, Sen. Ted Cruz, won 69% of the vote and all 40 candidates, overwhelming the state.
Trump finished third behind former Ohio Governor John Kasich with 14% of the vote, but did not win any counties.
Trump won the state in the general election, but the margin was 27 points smaller than Mitt Romney’s performance in the state four years ago (partly due to a challenge from independent candidate Evan Mamalin). Ta).
He reversed his lead in the 2020 general election by 13 points.
As of 2024, Trump is the favorite to win this primary. Let’s take a look at the state-wide trends to see how well the former president was able to realign the party.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
More than 2,000 counties are voting in primaries on Super Tuesday in 2024. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
5. What will Trump’s profit margin be in rural America?
More than 2,000 counties are currently voting, 84% of which are rural.
Taken together, these form a powerful voting bloc.
Trump has held an advantage among these voters since 2016 and is expected to do so again tonight.
Pay particular attention to the results in the least populated areas of West Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma.
Of all the Super Tuesday states, these parts of the country are the most heavily Republican in recent general elections.
