Five takeaways from the Pennsylvania primaries

Voters went to the polls Tuesday for Pennsylvania’s primary election, intensifying the race in what will be one of the key battleground states in November.

President Biden and President Donald Trump, as expected, comfortably won their respective races, but both faced protest votes. The Keystone State is one of seven battlegrounds that will determine the winner of the Oval Office on November 5th.

Pennsylvania is one of the most closely watched states in the fall Senate race, with Republican David McCormick, who won Trump’s support despite past friction with the former president, competing with Sen. Bob Casey ( He is aiming to unseat the Democratic Party of Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pennsylvania), an ardent progressive who has criticized Israel’s war against Hamas, managed to fend off a major challenge from centrist parties in a significant victory for the left.

Here are five key takeaways from Tuesday night’s primary.

The battle between Biden and Trump begins in the Keystone State.

On Tuesday night, Biden and Trump were almost certain to win their respective primaries. Still, their victory serves as a kind of starting gun in a critical moment for both men as they seek to win the White House.

Mr. Trump currently holds a slim lead over Mr. Biden in Pennsylvania, 47% to 46%, according to a tally of polls from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

In a sign of how important the Keystone State is to his presidential campaign, Mr. Biden just a week ago went on a three-city tour of the state, visiting his hometown of Scranton, where he introduced tax incentives for blue-collar workers. After pitching the plan, it was canceled. in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, earlier this month, Trump held a rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, just two days before the start of his trial in a case involving hush-money payments to porn stars.

Their dueling visits highlight the importance of Pennsylvania, a state Biden won by about 1 percentage point in 2020.

If polls are any indication, this year’s race will be even tougher.

Key Senate race gets off to a sleepy start

Mr. McCormick’s projected victory in the Republican Senate primary ensures that he will face Democratic incumbent Mr. Casey in a race that could determine who controls the Senate next year.

The Republican Party lost its chance of winning the Keystone State last time when Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, who defeated McCormick in the primary, defeated Trump supporter Mehmet Oz.

Republicans are now hoping that Mr. McCormick, who is closer to the establishment, can boost them in states that have so far slipped through their hands when it comes to key races. In a sign of the party’s unity around its candidate, Mr. Trump himself endorsed Mr. McCormick just a few weeks ago, despite some rocky relations between the two men.

Casey currently leads McCormick 46-37 percent, according to a tally of polls from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

Republicans acknowledge their candidate faces a predicament, but remain optimistic that despite Casey’s name recognition, he has a chance of winning — Democrat’s father, Bob -Casey Sr. twice served as governor of the Keystone State.

Progressives have staying power

The left faces persistent questions about its near-term future after a number of Democratic lawmakers challenged progressives’ stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Lee, who easily defended her seat in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District on Tuesday from moderate Rep. Babini Patel of Edgewood, criticized the theory that progressives are the most vulnerable this election cycle. did.

In fact, her first victory was stronger than her first Congressional election, in which she narrowly prevailed over a wave of attacks from special interests that spent millions of dollars to defeat her. Unlike that campaign, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliates did not participate much in Tuesday’s campaign.

Lee collected thousands of dollars in small donations, ultimately raising $2.5 million, his campaign reported on the first day.

Her victory was a success of the grassroots model that progressives popularized in the House, putting unlikely candidates into office and protecting liberal incumbents whose positions Democrats say are precarious.

It’s also badly needed by the party’s left, which has pushed back against centrists who it says have been unhelpful or even downright harmful to Biden’s first-term policy agenda and his positions on the Middle East. It gave me a boost of energy.

Protest votes highlight Biden’s dissatisfaction with Trump

In a cycle where voters don’t like what they see, observers were watching closely to see how many protest votes would be cast for both Biden and Trump.

Tuesday’s vote count does not include the number of “uncommitted” votes, so it could be some time before the number of protest votes cast in the Democratic primary is known. Relatively few votes were also cast for Biden’s former primary challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.).

What was even more obvious was that there were clear signs of dissatisfaction on the Republican side. Nikki Haley, who withdrew from the Republican primary earlier this year and has not yet endorsed Trump, had received double-digit votes as of Tuesday night.

While the numbers did not affect Trump’s victory on Tuesday, they could indicate some potential problems for the former president in November.

Pennsylvania is one of the most battleground states this cycle, and both Biden and Trump are factoring it into their calculations as part of their path to No. 270. And in states where Mr. Biden outperformed his rival by about 1 percentage point in 2020, every vote counts — whether Mr. Trump’s supporters voted against him or withdrew from the election altogether. This suggests that there may be reason to be concerned about the possibility of

Mr. Biden fared much better than Mr. Trump in Tuesday’s primary, winning an overwhelming majority of 94.8%, ahead of Mr. Phillips, a fellow moderate. However, Phillips’ 5.2% cannot fail to be noteworthy. This low number represents a broader problem for Biden. This means that some of his Democratic supporters, including centrists, do not want him to be re-elected.

Although the breakdown of noncommittal voters is not yet known, the fact that Pennsylvania voters have indicated they intend to vote against each major party poses difficulties for both candidates seeking the White House in a big way. there is a possibility.

Good night to the incumbent.

Heading into Tuesday, there was some speculation that incumbents from both parties could emerge victorious.

That didn’t happen.

The most high-profile example was the progressive Mr. Lee, who easily fended off challenges from the party center.

But Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick also faced a notable primary challenger, in this case a hardliner within his party.

Anti-abortion activist Matt Hock was aiming to unseat the incumbent, a moderate former FBI agent who represents a suburban Philadelphia county.

After all, it wasn’t even an actual contest. Fitzpatrick slipped to victory in a district that would have been even more competitive in November had Hook won. The Cook Political Report currently lists Fitzpatrick’s seat as “likely Republican,” meaning Democrats face a steep hill to flip it in November. .