Future Dark Horses in Men’s Tennis

Men’s tennis seems to be dominated by a couple of stars—Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz—especially when they are both in the tournament. There are some notable contenders lurking behind them, like Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic. However, it’s quite likely we’ll see a surprising “dark horse” champion emerge, maybe at the 2026 US Open.

If I think back to the last real dark horse who took home a Grand Slam, it points to Marin Cilic at the 2014 US Open. Some might argue that Dominic Thiem’s win in 2020 qualifies, but that whole tournament had its quirks due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with big names like Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer out of the picture, leaving Thiem as the second seed. For me, a true dark horse is someone seeded 5 or lower who actually wins (and, well, Djokovic doesn’t fit that description as he’s a contender of a different caliber). So, who might pull off a shocker in 2026?

Taylor Fritz has a game that’s particularly effective on hard courts. Ben Shelton, another big-serving American player, also fits that mold (I’ve written about him if you’re curious). In a way, despite losing the title of “Best American Male Player” to Shelton, Fritz has had a solid year—though not so much during the clay season. Historically, he’s done well on the ground, and he secured his only ATP 1000 trophy at Indian Wells, which is on hard courts.

I used to think of Fritz as being in this odd space as a high-level player, but it seems like he’s really found his groove as he moves into his late 20s. He may never become a top-tier champion, but I think he can still perform well under favorable conditions. The US Open could be one of those moments.

Then there’s Cobolli, a new rising star in the Italian tennis scene, who seems poised to break into the upper ranks. To climb higher, though, he’ll need to prove he can beat the top players in big matches. He had a decent year, but most of his excitement was on clay. His sole title came on hard courts, which doesn’t exactly shout “hidden talent.”

This year, however, he did impressively win a five-set match and reached the French Open final as well as the Wimbledon quarterfinals. He shows resilience, which is crucial for any dark horse contender.

Now, I know it may sound strange to include Medvedev, considering his current struggles, but I still see value in his experience as a former champion. He hasn’t participated in a Grand Slam recently, but he used to dominate on hard courts. His age could work in his favor if he manages to regain his form. So, I’m keeping him on the list for dark horses.

Medvedev definitely has the capability to beat the top players, especially on surfaces he likes. The challenge he faces is finding that high level again and maybe reigniting his success from his championship win in 2021.

Then we have a young phenom who’s been creating quite a stir. The 19-year-old, Jodal, is definitely a name to watch as we enter the clay season. A lot of his potential is still theoretical since he’s only been on tour for a year, but he had a standout season. He recently edged out another player for the Best Teen Player title.

When it comes to clay courts, who knows what might happen at the US Open? It’s a different game, requiring a unique approach. Jodal could absolutely have a great run, but if he aims for the title, he’ll need to up his game significantly.

Another promising American player is Tien, who, at only 20, has made impressive strides in the rankings, despite a rocky clay and grass season. But hey, hard courts are a different story, and he was a genuine contender at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells. He’s looking to make a similar impact at the U.S. Open.

Tien certainly has room to grow, but until someone manages to win, the cycle of young American players passing the baton will continue. It’s been quite a while—23 years, to be exact.