MIAMI – A tropical storm warning has been issued for parts of the Florida coast as a disturbance designated as potential tropical storm 4 is heading for the state.
The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will likely eventually become Tropical Storm Deby, threatening the state with heavy rain, strong winds and even a possible storm surge.
A tropical storm warning is currently in effect for the southwest coast of Florida from near Cape Coral to the Everglades.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and surrounding communities including Tampa, Sarasota and the Big Bend region of the state.
A tropical storm warning means that a tropical storm is expected to develop somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that a tropical storm may develop within the watch area, usually within the next 48 hours.
Additionally, a storm surge watch was issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula, from Bonita Beach north to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and the Port of Charlotte.
Most of Florida will remain under a state of emergency Friday and officials are urging residents to prepare now. The National Hurricane Center believes the disturbance will strengthen to at least a tropical depression or tropical storm by the end of the week.
If the potential cyclone reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Debby, but whether or not it is named, the cyclone is expected to dump several inches of rain on Florida, especially along the Gulf Coast.
The chances of this disturbance developing continue to increase as it approaches the Straits of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
“This is an opportunity for development,” said Fox Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin, “and there’s increasing confidence that this storm is likely coming. What’s unclear is how strong this system will become.”
Where is potential Tropical Cyclone No. 4?
The tropical depression is producing widespread, turbulent showers and thunderstorms Friday morning across Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba and adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic, according to the NHC.
A tropical storm is expected to develop in the Straits of Florida on Saturday, according to the NHC.
“Environmental conditions are expected to continue to support further development, with a tropical depression likely to develop over the Straits of Florida or in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula by the end of this week,” the agency said.
Florida begins preparations as flood threat grows
The FOX Forecast Center said showers and thunderstorms are already developing from the center of the tropical disturbance, affecting southern Florida on Friday.
As the storm approaches, rainfall will increase over the weekend, spreading from south to north across much of Florida. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected across parts of Florida and eventually the southeastern U.S. coast.
The NHC said these totals could cause both urban flooding and isolated river flooding.
Tropical storm-force winds are expected to move into warning areas of Southwest Florida late Saturday night through Saturday night, then move north up Florida’s west coast through Sunday.
The NHC warned that parts of Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay and the Port of Charlotte, could experience a storm surge of 1 to 4 feet.
Flood watches remain in effect for all of South Florida, including Miami, until Sunday evening.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been flying along Cuba’s northern coast to gauge the intensity of disturbances, but international restrictions limit their reach.
Sandbag stations set up in Florida
In Seminole County and other parts of the state, officials are distributing free sandbags to help residents prepare for potential flooding.
“Residents can take home up to 15 bags per household,” FOX35’s Marley Capper told FOX Weather from Seminole County, “which is more than we’ve had in the past, so we want to make sure residents are prepared and ready to go.”
The FOX Forecast Center said confidence is growing about what will happen over the next 24 hours as the storm moves into the Straits of Florida and then the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The next uncertainty is where the storm will follow from Sunday through Monday.
“We have this trough to the north. Could this trough sink south and lift the trough,” Merwin said. “Unfortunately, we also have a ridge of high pressure that’s heating up the U.S. If that pushes through quickly, that could cause the trough to stall. That could also cause more rainfall and potential flooding in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.”
