U.S. Flu Season Outlook
NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. flu season is off to a slow start, and it’s uncertain whether it will be as severe as last winter’s. However, some health experts are a bit worried, particularly after the CDC released data indicating a new strain of the virus has appeared.
An initial evaluation suggests that the current vaccines might still offer some protection against this new strain that’s primarily driving recent infections, according to CDC data.
There’s considerable concern among scientists and healthcare professionals regarding the lagging vaccination rates, which contributed to the unusually high flu hospitalizations and fatalities last season—one of the deadliest in recent years.
“I think we’re going to see a really severe season,” said Asefeh Faraz Covelli from the George Washington University School of Nursing.
Last winter’s flu hospitalization rate was the highest observed since the H1N1 pandemic 15 years ago. The flu was linked to over 18,000 deaths, and one week earlier this year recorded more than 1,800 deaths—the steepest week-long increase in at least a decade. Child flu fatalities were also notably elevated.
CDC data released on Friday indicated low flu activity thus far, with only Louisiana reporting moderate levels. Most of the infections have been among children, noted Alicia Budd from the CDC.
The predominant strain this year has been a new version of the type A H3N2 virus, historically known for causing serious illness among older adults. This strain accounts for the majority of cases so far, with over half being a new K variant that diverges from the one targeted by this year’s flu vaccines.
A preliminary analysis from the UK indicates that the vaccines do seem to provide at least some degree of protection, although it will take time for researchers to determine how effective they truly are. Experts agree that any level of protection that lessens the impact of flu infections is crucial.
Typically, flu seasons worsen between December and February, and illnesses are expected to rise as travel and gatherings increase, particularly around Thanksgiving. “I think it’s going to start picking up here,” Covelli stated. “This is the ideal time to get vaccinated.”
This year, researchers have faced some challenges in tracking the trends of respiratory infections and vaccination rates. They depend on CDC data, but a recent government shutdown interrupted collection and reporting just as respiratory infections were increasing.
Moreover, the federal government’s initiatives to encourage vaccinations have been limited since U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took charge of the CDC and other health agencies. Kennedy’s stance as a prominent anti-vaccine advocate has sown doubt regarding vaccine safety, including for flu shots that contain a preservative known as thimerosal.
Vaccination rates for COVID-19 have notably declined, with only about 6% of children and 14% of adults up to date on their vaccinations, according to additional CDC data. Each of these figures shows a decrease of roughly 3 percentage points compared to the same time last fall.
When it comes to flu vaccinations, things appear more complex. Some reports indicate a decrease, with over two million fewer flu shots administered at U.S. pharmacies by the end of October compared to last year. However, the latest CDC data indicates that for children, the vaccination rate this year is on par with last year at around 34%. Adult vaccination rates have seen a slight uptick, now sitting at around 37%, based on survey data.
It’s still early in the season, and it’s hard to predict if this increase will continue or what might be behind it, according to CDC officials.
As of early November, the U.S. flu hospitalization rate remains similar to what it was at this time last year. Rates for COVID-19 and another respiratory virus, RSV, are lower so far this season, as reported by another set of CDC data.
