To grasp the weight of Israel’s unusual September attack on Hamas negotiators in Doha, it’s important to note President Trump’s signing of a deal aimed at ensuring Qatar’s security, which is a notable move for a non-NATO ally.
The day prior, Trump had urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make an unusual address. During a phone call, he conveyed to Qatar’s leader that he had assured no further attacks would occur, with Trump overseeing these commitments.
This incident marked a critical moment for the Arab Gulf states. Many officials and residents interpreted the Israeli strike in Doha as a significant threat to both regional stability and their own safety. The U.S. wanted to reassure its Gulf allies, but the attack risked considerable long-term consequences.
President Trump’s inability to intervene has heightened existing doubts among Gulf leaders regarding the reliability of the U.S. security umbrella. As a result, Gulf states are reassessing their defense alliances—not to replace the U.S., but to strengthen ties and explore new collaborative frameworks.
The attack also prompted an unexpected show of solidarity among the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes influential countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, while altering perceptions of Israel in the region.
Just five years back, the UAE and Bahrain formalized diplomatic ties with Israel, and Saudi Arabia was contemplating similar steps. However, the Hamas attack on October 7 and the ongoing conflict in Gaza have stalled these normalization efforts, exacerbating the already strained relationships due to the massive casualties in Gaza.
While the Iranian threat has lessened somewhat, anxiety regarding Israel’s actions has intensified. Israeli operations against Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas over the past couple of years have indirectly aided Gulf states concerned about Tehran. The collapse of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” and setbacks to its nuclear program can be traced back to Israeli and American strikes.
Nevertheless, Iran continues to be a major security concern for the Gulf. Prior to the attack on Doha, Iran had violated Qatar’s sovereignty with a coordinated strike on the U.S. al-Udeid military base, retaliating against U.S. and Israeli assaults on its nuclear sites.
Nonetheless, while Gulf leaders see a reduction in the Iranian threat overall, they worry about Israel becoming a more destabilizing force. This concern is heightened by discussions surrounding Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ambitions, which the attack on Qatar only validated as a direct threat to their security and development goals.
There is a growing fear among Gulf leaders that if Israel is prepared to strike in Doha, it could target other areas as well. This contradicts their vision of the Gulf as a bastion of safety. Anwar Gargash, an advisor to the UAE, labeled the attack as a “betrayal,” emphasizing that the security of the Gulf Arab states cannot be divorced from one another.
The ramifications for regional security remain uncertain. While Arab and Islamic leaders condemned the Israeli assault without proposing binding next steps, the Gulf Cooperation Council framed the attack as a common threat, calling for enhanced collective defenses.
The unity displayed at the Council meeting is significant, especially as it showcases a strategic alignment among Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, informally referred to as the Gulf Three. Even before the attack, collaboration among these nations was on the rise. They have publicly asserted that Israel’s annexation of the West Bank is a red line.
Now, they are coordinating with the U.S. to strengthen collective security against threats from both Iran and Israel, though it’s unclear whether this will lead to a Gulf Arab version of NATO or a more versatile network of security agreements complementing ties with the U.S.
On a positive note, the attack on Doha may catalyze a newfound alignment among these Gulf nations. Their interactions have occasionally intensified rather than eased conflicts.
With the wealth, diplomatic reach, and ties to the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are strategically positioned to address a range of pressing issues—from striving for stabilizing Gaza to addressing concerns in Syria and engaging Iran diplomatically regarding its nuclear aspirations and regional activities. As the region evolves, cooperation among these significant players is crucial for paving a path towards a more peaceful future.
