For Trump, legal threats become opportunity

Former President Trump is scheduled to appear in a Washington courtroom on Tuesday, just six days before the Iowa caucuses.

For any candidate other than Trump, juxtaposing legal issues with major political challenges would be doomed.

But Trump leads the Republican primary by more than 50 points nationally and by more than 30 points in Iowa. If he becomes the Republican candidate, at worst he will have a 50-50 chance of winning the general election.

The fact that such a thing is possible for a former president who has been impeached twice and faces a total of four indictments and a total of 91 criminal charges is an immense frustration for Democrats and other critics. It is the cause of

President Biden on Monday spoke at a church in Charleston, South Carolina, where a white racist murdered nine black parishioners in 2015, accusing President Trump and his allies of “trying to steal history.” did.

President Trump has made no secret that he wants to at least eliminate the possibility of criminal charges for the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

His legal team plans to argue the case Tuesday before a three-judge panel in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

The core of their argument would be that Trump's actions and statements before and after the 2020 election were part of his official duties as president and therefore cannot be prosecuted.

In a social media post Monday, President Trump promised to attend the hearing.

He added, “Of course, as President of the United States and Commander in Chief, I was entitled to immunity. I wasn't campaigning, the election was long over. I wasn't looking for voter fraud.'' It was my duty to find out and run this country otherwise.”

Despite President Trump's protests to the contrary, no evidence of widespread voter fraud has been presented so far. He also reacted angrily during the waning days of his presidency when aides and officials, including then-Attorney General Bill Barr, pushed back against his exaggerated or outright false claims. .

Still, Trump plans to have his day in court on the immunity issue. Many observers believe the issue could end up before the Supreme Court.

Special Counsel Jack Smith, President Trump's nemesis, late last year asked the Supreme Court to take up the matter at an accelerated pace, bypassing the appeals courts. However, the High Court rejected this.

The Trump team's legal opinion has many skeptics, many of whom argue that the former president's interpretation means any president is above the law.

Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing Trump's federal case, ruled in December that holding the nation's highest office “does not confer a lifetime 'get out of jail free' pass.”

Richard Painter, a law professor and former Republican who left the party in 2018 because of President Trump, told the column that he doesn't think the Trump campaign's legal arguments have “any value.”

Painter argued that there is nothing in the Constitution or case law to support the idea that presidents enjoy blanket immunity.

He also expressed deep skepticism that Trump would prevail even on the Supreme Court, where conservatives hold a 6-3 majority. Three of the conservative justices are Trump candidates.

“Conservative courts are also concerned about their own power and the broader power of the court,” Painter argued. “The idea of ​​placing the president of the United States outside of judicial jurisdiction would be anathema to the court's most conservative justices.”

For now, Trump appears to be politically out of reach of his rivals for the Republican nomination.

In this battle, political insiders have suggested that suspending campaigning to attend court is unlikely to have any negative impact.

Republican voters rallied behind Trump during the indictment. His court appearance is sure to be a spectacle. That would force his rivals to respond again to his actions rather than asserting their candidacy.

“If he had just held a rally or posted on social media, none of this would have happened,” said Matt Makowiak, chairman of the Texas Republican Party of Travis County.

The courtroom episode “is the kind that will force his competitors to come to his defense,” Makowiak added. It must be an out-of-body experience for those challenging him in the primaries. These big moments come along and you have to protect him for different reasons. ”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley have both suggested or directly said they would pardon Trump if one of them becomes president and Trump is convicted.

Some Republicans have criticized his de facto support, both morally and as a political tactic.

Doug Hay, former communications director for the Republican National Committee, argued that typically when a political opponent is reeling, “you either push them down, or they fall on their own and you reach out.”

But referring to Mr. Trump's main rivals, he said, “In this case, we see them using the same language to reinforce Mr. Trump's message, about things like a 'weaponized judicial system.' I've come,'' he said.

“Trump's opponents didn't even give them anywhere else to go,” Hay said, referring to Republican voters who are skeptical of Trump.

It's widely agreed that a potential twist in the story could be a real game changer. If Trump is indeed convicted, his supporters and detractors alike acknowledge that even some Republicans might have second thoughts.

Of course, the impact on independent voters could be even worse.

But for now, it seems unlikely that Trump will issue a verdict while the Republican primary is still competitive.

In the end, Tuesday's hearing is likely just another episode of President Trump's show.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.