Forecasting pioneer: ‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’

A prominent presidential election forecaster said in a recent interview: [President Biden] “Losing” in November.

in Interview with the Guardian Released on Friday, American University Professor Alan Lichtman pointed out his method as follows: Predict presidential elections The analysis uses 13 “keys” such as “Is the incumbent party candidate the incumbent president?” and “The incumbent party’s nomination contest is not in full swing.” Lichtman noted that Biden is the incumbent and easily defeated other Democrats in the primary.

“This is two keys away from the top,” Lichtman said, according to the Guardian. “That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his loss. A lot of things would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”

Recent polls show Biden ahead of former President Trump, and a recent Quinnipiac poll shows him tied with Biden.

The average national poll from The Hill/Decision Desk shows him tied at 41.3 percent in a three-way race with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Mr. Lichtman has a history of correctly picking the winner of presidential elections since the mid-1980s. He predicted that Biden would beat Trump in the 2020 election, and said in an interview with the Guardian that the coronavirus pandemic had “hit Biden hard.”

“The key message is that what matters is governance, not campaigning. Instead of dealing with the pandemic substantively, as we know, he thought we could talk our way out of the pandemic.” But that depressed him,” Lichtman said.